IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rdg/emxxdp/em-dp2014-09.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Prediction Markets, Twitter and Bigotgate

Author

Listed:
  • Leighton Vaughan Williams

    (Nottingham Trent University)

  • James Reade

    (Department of Economics, University of Reading)

Abstract

We consider the impact of breaking news on market prices by looking at activity on the micro-blogging platform Twitter surrounding the #bigotgate scandal during the 2010 UK General Election, and subsequent movements of betting prices on a prominent betting exchange, Betfair. We find that the response of market prices appears sluggish, as over a thousand tweets are sent before any price movement is registered (despite trading taking place). However, this slow movement appears to be explained by the need for corroborating evidence via more traditional forms of media; once important Tweeters begin to Tweet, once hyperlinks are added to Tweets, and once television and radio news bulletins begin, prices begin to move.

Suggested Citation

  • Leighton Vaughan Williams & James Reade, 2014. "Prediction Markets, Twitter and Bigotgate," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2014-09, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    • Handle: RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2014-09
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.reading.ac.uk/web/FILES/economics/emdp2014114.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    2. Tushar Rao & Saket Srivastava, 2012. "Modeling Movements in Oil, Gold, Forex and Market Indices using Search Volume Index and Twitter Sentiments," Papers 1212.1037, arXiv.org.
    3. Prat, Andrea & Palacios-Huerta, Ignacio, 2010. "Measuring the Impact Factor of Agents within an Organization Using Communication Patterns," CEPR Discussion Papers 8040, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Dietmar Janetzko, 2014. "Predictive modeling in turbulent times – What Twitter reveals about the EUR/USD exchange rate," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 69-106, September.
    5. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2014. "Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 62-91, March.
    6. Julianne Treme & Zoe VanDerPloeg, 2014. "The Twitter Effect: Social Media Usage as a Contributor to Movie Success," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 793-809.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
    8. Alexander Porshnev & Ilya Redkin & Alexey Shevchenko, 2013. "Improving prediction of stock market indices by analyzing the psychological states of twitter users," HSE Working papers WP BRP 22/FE/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    9. Asquith, Paul, 1983. "Merger bids, uncertainty, and stockholder returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 51-83, April.
    10. Alasdair Brown, 2014. "Information Processing Constraints and Asset Mispricing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 245-268, March.
    11. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    12. Chi Feng & Yang Nathan, 2011. "Twitter Adoption in Congress," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-46, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2016. "Using Social Media to Identify Market Inefficiencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2016-01, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    2. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & J. James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2016. "Using Social Media to Identify Market Ine!ciencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair," Working Papers 2016-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leighton Vaughan Williams & J. James Reade, 2016. "Prediction Markets, Social Media and Information Efficiency," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 518-556, August.
    2. Mills, Brian M. & Salaga, Steven, 2018. "A natural experiment for efficient markets: Information quality and influential agents," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 23-39.
    3. Taufiq Choudhry & Ranadeva Jayasekera, 2015. "Level of efficiency in the UK equity market: empirical study of the effects of the global financial crisis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 213-242, February.
    4. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    5. AitSahlia, Farid & Yoon, Joon-Hui, 2016. "Information stages in efficient markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 84-94.
    6. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca & Singleton, Carl, 2022. "Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 282-299.
    7. Schwert, G. William, 2003. "Anomalies and market efficiency," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 939-974, Elsevier.
    8. Attiya Yasmeen Javid, 2000. "Alternative Capital Asset Pricing Models: A Review of Theory and Evidence," PIDE Research Report 2000:3, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    9. Reddy, Kotapati Srinivasa, 2015. "Extant Reviews on Entry-mode/Internationalization, Mergers & Acquisitions, and Diversification: Understanding Theories and Establishing Interdisciplinary Research," MPRA Paper 63744, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    10. Szymon Okoń, 2012. "Investor Reaction to Mandatory Offers on the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 6(2), June.
    11. An, Suwei, 2023. "Essays on incentive contracts, M&As, and firm risk," Other publications TiSEM dd97d2f5-1c9d-47c5-ba62-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Godfrey, Keith R.L., 2017. "Toward a model-free measure of market efficiency," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 97-112.
    13. Pinar OKAN GOKTEN & Furkan BASER & Soner GOKTEN, 2017. "Using fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm in financial health scoring," The Audit Financiar journal, Chamber of Financial Auditors of Romania, vol. 15(147), pages 385-385.
    14. Mendiela, Pauline, 2021. "Information security breaches and financial market reaction: the French case," MPRA Paper 105029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kallberg, Jarl & Liu, Crocker H. & Pasquariello, Paolo, 2008. "Updating expectations: An analysis of post-9/11 returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 400-432, November.
    16. Martynova, Marina & Renneboog, Luc, 2008. "A century of corporate takeovers: What have we learned and where do we stand?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2148-2177, October.
    17. Martynova, M., 2006. "The market for corporate control and corporate governance regulation in Europe," Other publications TiSEM 8651e281-4914-41f2-ac14-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric & Olarreaga, Marcelo & Carrère, Céline & Fugazza, Marco, 2016. "On the heterogeneous effect of trade on unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 11540, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Mikio Ito & Akihiko Noda & Tatsuma Wada, 2016. "The evolution of stock market efficiency in the US: a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 621-635, February.
    20. Rácz, Dávid Andor & Huszár, Gergely, 2019. "The Effects of Earnings Surprises in Quarterly Reports on S&P 500 Components," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 64(2), pages 239-259.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    information and market ffciency; gambling; political elections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2014-09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alexander Mihailov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/derdguk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.