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Business Surveys and Economic Activity

Author

Listed:
  • Chris Aylmer

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Troy Gill

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

In this paper we examine the information content of business survey information, focusing in particular on some of the characteristics of the net balance statistic. A number of Australian business surveys are appraised. Four aspects are examined: the extent to which surveys are correlated with economic variables that they are designed to track; advantages in terms of timeliness; the degree to which surveys are forward or backward-looking; and the ability of business surveys to pick turning points. In summary, the business conditions (including sales/output), employment and selling prices components of the business surveys seem to provide the most information, and to a lesser extent the component relating to corporate profitability. Taken together, the surveys can provide useful coincident information on the economy with some advantage in terms of timeliness. The recommended approach to the use of business surveys is to extract common themes and not place too much weight on a single result.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Aylmer & Troy Gill, 2003. "Business Surveys and Economic Activity," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2003-01
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    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2003/pdf/rdp2003-01.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Brischetto & Gordon de Brouwer, 1999. "Householders’ Inflation Expectations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Ivan Roberts & John Simon, 2001. "What do Sentiment Surveys Measure?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Teresa Santero & Niels Westerlund, 1996. "Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 170, OECD Publishing.
    4. Jonathan Kearns, 1998. "The Distribution and Measurement of Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9810, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aleksejs Melihovs & Svetlana Rusakova, 2005. "Short-Term Forecasting of Economic Development in Latvia Using Business and Consumer Survey Data," Working Papers 2005/04, Latvijas Banka.
    2. Kim Nguyen & Gianni La Cava, 2020. "Start Spreading the News: News Sentiment and Economic Activity in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2020-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Monica Martin & Cristiano Papile, 2004. "The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey: An Assessment," Staff Working Papers 04-15, Bank of Canada.
    4. Guizzardi, Andrea & Stacchini, Annalisa, 2015. "Real-time forecasting regional tourism with business sentiment surveys," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 213-223.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business; confidence; sentiment; survey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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