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Makroelemzők inflációs várakozásai Magyarországon
[The inflationary expectations of macro analysts in Hungary]

Author

Listed:
  • Krekó, Judit
  • Vonnák, Balázs

Abstract

Tanulmányunkban a magyarországi professzionális inflációs előrejelzések értékelésére vállalkoztunk. A Reuters által végzett felmérés első hat éve alapján igazolódni látszik az az előzetes sejtés, miszerint az egyes makroelemzők előrejelzéseinek átlagolása csökkenti az átlagos előrejelzési hibát. Az előrejelzések átlaga torzítatlan becslése a tényinflációnak, azonban nem minden esetben tükrözi azonnal az új információkat. A hónapról hónapra változó minta és az egyes előrejelzők közti szóródás miatt a felmérés átlagának 0,1-0,2 százalékpontnál kisebb változásai csak kis valószínűséggel tulajdoníthatók a piaci inflációs várakozások tényleges megváltozásának. Háromszori egyirányú elmozdulás mögött ugyanakkor az esetek döntő többségében a várakozások tényleges megváltozása áll. Eredményeink alapján úgy ítéljük meg, hogy - tekintve egyfelől az adat könnyű elérhetőségét, másfelől kielégítő előrejelzési tulajdonságait - rövid távú (1-2 évre történő) inflációs tervezéshez optimális választás az előrejelzői konszenzus figyelembevétele. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C32, C42, C52, D84, E31.

Suggested Citation

  • Krekó, Judit & Vonnák, Balázs, 2003. "Makroelemzők inflációs várakozásai Magyarországon [The inflationary expectations of macro analysts in Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 315-334.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:607
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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