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The Rise of Developing Asia and The New Economic Order

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  • Dale W. Jorgenson
  • Khuong Vu

Abstract

This paper identifies emerging trends in the world economy during the next decade. The first is that China will overtake the U.S. in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), ending more than a century of U.S. leadership as the world's largest economy. The second is that Developing Asia, excluding Japan, will overtake the G7, a group of the seven largest industrialized economies established in 1975â76. Finally, India will overtake Japan, Russia will overtake Germany, and Brazil will overtake the U.K., leading to a New World Economic Order: China, the U.S., India, Japan, Russia, Germany, and Brazil.
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  • Dale W. Jorgenson & Khuong Vu, "undated". "The Rise of Developing Asia and The New Economic Order," Working Paper 72711, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    • Handle: RePEc:qsh:wpaper:72711
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2008. "A Retrospective Look at the U.S. Productivity Growth Resurgence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 3-24, Winter.
    2. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Vu, Khuong M., 2010. "Potential growth of the world economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 615-631, September.
    3. Dale W. Jorgenson & J. Steven Landefeld, 2006. "Blueprint for Expanded and Integrated US Accounts: Review, Assessment, and Next Steps," NBER Chapters, in: A New Architecture for the US National Accounts, pages 13-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 5(1), pages 3-34.
    5. Paul Schreyer, 2001. "The OECD Productivity Manual: A Guide to the Measurement of Industry-Level and Aggregate Productivity," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 2, pages 37-51, Spring.
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    Cited by:

    1. Das, Gouranga G. & Drine, Imed, 2020. "Distance from the technology frontier: How could Africa catch-up via socio-institutional factors and human capital?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Nikeel Kumar & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar, 2020. "Relationship between ICT and international tourism demand: A study of major tourist destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(6), pages 908-925, September.
    3. Bakari, Sayef & Tiba, Sofien, 2020. "The Impact of Internet on Economic Growth in North Africa: New empirical and policy analysis," MPRA Paper 100609, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Carmen Díaz-Roldán & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2021. "Innovations and ICT: Do They Favour Economic Growth and Environmental Quality?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-17, March.
    5. Ngozi Adeleye & Chiamaka Eboagu, 2019. "Evaluation of ICT development and economic growth in Africa," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 31-53, April.
    6. Vu, Khuong M., 2013. "Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Singapore’s economic growth," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 284-300.
    7. Voskoboynikov, Ilya & Solanko, Laura, 2014. "When high growth is not enough: Rethinking Russia's pre-crisis economic performance," BOFIT Policy Briefs 6/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    8. Marcel P. Timmer & Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2014. "Is Mining Fuelling Long-Run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends Since 1995," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S2), pages 398-422, November.
    9. Niebel, Thomas, 2018. "ICT and economic growth – Comparing developing, emerging and developed countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 197-211.
    10. Adedoyin, Festus Fatai & Bekun, Festus Victor & Driha, Oana M. & Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel, 2020. "The effects of air transportation, energy, ICT and FDI on economic growth in the industry 4.0 era: Evidence from the United States," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    11. Erumban, Abdul A. & Das, Deb Kusum, 2016. "Information and communication technology and economic growth in India," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 412-431.
    12. Lilas Demmou & Andreas Wörgötter, 2015. "Boosting Productivity in Russia: Skills, Education and Innovation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1189, OECD Publishing.
    13. Wang, Lan-Hsun & Liao, Shu-Yi & Huang, Mao-Lung, 2022. "The growth effects of knowledge-based technological change on Taiwan’s industry: A comparison of R&D and education level," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 525-545.
    14. Das, Gouranga Gopal, 2015. "Why some countries are slow in acquiring new technologies? A model of trade-led diffusion and absorption," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 65-91.
    15. Ghulam Mustafa & Muhammad Jamil, 2018. "Testing the Governance-Productivity Nexus for Emerging Asian Countries," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 143-169, Jan-June.
    16. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-137 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Aktoty Aitzhanova & Shigeo Katsu & Johannes F. Linn & Vladislav Yezhov (ed.), 2014. "Kazakhstan 2050: Toward a Modern Society for All," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 1, number kazakh2050, Summer.
    18. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Nikeel Kumar & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2019. "Exploring the effect of ICT and tourism on economic growth: a study of Israel," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 221-254, August.

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