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Macroeconomic risk and the size of government- do globalisation andinstitutions matter?

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Abstract

We present an empirical model where output growth volatility and government expenditure are jointly endogenous and both are affected by policies and institutions. We find that output volatility increases government expenditure, but higher expenditure, causes greater out-put volatility. This suggests that discretionary government intervention is destabilising. Trade openness drives both higher expenditure and greater output volatility. Financial openness instead disciplines the size of government. Political institutions that strengthen policymaker's ac-countability towards the electorate result in lower expenditure and, in-directly, contribute to output stabilisation. Institutional arrangements concerning the central bank are not neutral: a more independent centralbank calls for lower output volatility.

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  • Fabrizio Carmignani & Emilio Colombo & Patrizio Tirelli, 2009. "Macroeconomic risk and the size of government- do globalisation andinstitutions matter?," Discussion Papers Series 394, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:qld:uq2004:394
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    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    2. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072408, April.
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