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Evaluating the Success of Malaysia’s Exchange Controls (1998-99)

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  • S M Ali Abbas (Hertford College)

Abstract

The paper evaluates in depth, the exchange control measures imposed by Malaysia in September-1998. Controls are evaluated using three alternative benchmarks—Malaysia vs. itself (pre-controls), vs. ex-ante forecasts of Malaysia for the year-1999, and Malaysia vs. the other affected East Asian economies. The comparisons suggest that controls were effective in turning some key variables around, especially the stock market index, and also enabled Malaysia to incur fewer social costs vis-à-vis the other crisis-economies. Finally, a GARCH measure of Malaysia’s interest-rate and stock-market volatility is obtained and the impact of controls on volatility studied. Evidence was found of volatility responding differentially to the Russian crisis (before controls) and the Brazilian crisis (after controls), indicating that controls helped insulate Malaysia from developments in global financial markets. Overall the paper confirms the necessity of LDCs retaining the capital controls option in the absence of material efforts to reform the international financial architecture and the inadequacy of conventional policy tools to effectively deal with present-day capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • S M Ali Abbas (Hertford College), "undated". "Evaluating the Success of Malaysia’s Exchange Controls (1998-99)," QEH Working Papers qehwps113, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:qeh:qehwps:qehwps113
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    File URL: http://workingpapers.qeh.ox.ac.uk/RePEc/qeh/qehwps/qehwps113.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    2. Hali J. Edison & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1999. "Capital controls during financial crises: the cases of Malaysia and Thailand," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep, pages 1-36.
    3. Mr. Christiane Nickel & Mr. Günter Schmidt & Mr. Georg Stadtmann & Mr. Michael Frenkel, 2001. "The Effects of Capital Controls on Exchange Rate Volatility and Output," IMF Working Papers 2001/187, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Cordella, Tito, 2003. "Can short-term capital controls promote capital inflows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 737-745, October.
    5. World Bank, 2000. "Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2000," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14776.
    6. Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Mr. R. B. Johnston, 1998. "Why Do Countries Use Capital Controls?," IMF Working Papers 1998/181, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2004. "Do Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Controls Vary by their Type? Evidence From Malaysia," IMF Working Papers 2004/003, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mihir A. Desai & C. Fritz Foley & James R. Hines, 2006. "Capital Controls, Liberalizations, and Foreign Direct Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1433-1464.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yoke Yue Kan, 2017. "Macroeconomic environment of bull markets in Malaysia," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(1), pages 72-96, February.
    2. Tronzano, Marco, 2015. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure in Emerging Financial Markets: Some Evidence from Malaysia (1999-2015) - La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse nei paesi emergenti: alcune evi," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(4), pages 521-550.

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