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The Effect of Bank Shocks on Firm-Level and Aggregate Investment

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  • João Amador
  • Arne J. Nagengast

Abstract

We show that credit supply shocks have a strong impact on firm-level as well as aggregate investment by applying the methodology developed by Amiti and Weinstein (2013) to a rich dataset of matched bank-firm loans in the Portuguese economy for the period 2005 to 2013. We argue that their decomposition framework can also be used in the presence of small firms with only one banking relationship as long as they account for a small share of the total loan volume of their banks. The growth rate of individual loans in our dataset is decomposed into bank, firm, industry and common shocks. Adverse bank shocks are found to strongly impair firm-level investment, particularly in small firms and in those with no access to alternative financing sources. For the economy as a whole, granular shocks in the banking system account for around 20-40% of aggregate investment dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • João Amador & Arne J. Nagengast, 2015. "The Effect of Bank Shocks on Firm-Level and Aggregate Investment," Working Papers w201515, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201515
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    3. Borio, Claudio & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2017. "Monetary policy and bank lending in a low interest rate environment: Diminishing effectiveness?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 217-231.
    4. Nasha Ananchotikul & Vorada Limjaroenrat, 2017. "Bank Supply Shocks and Firm Investment: A Granular View from the Thai Credit Registry Data," PIER Discussion Papers 67, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Berger, Allen N. & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O.S., 2020. "Banks and the real economy: An assessment of the research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Barbieri, Claudio & Couaillier, Cyril & Perales, Cristian & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza, 2022. "Informing macroprudential policy choices using credit supply and demand decompositions," Working Paper Series 2702, European Central Bank.
    7. Marianna Endrész, 2020. "The bank lending channel during financial turmoil," MNB Working Papers 2020/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    8. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    9. Gebauer, Stefan & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas, 2018. "Corporate debt and investment: A firm-level analysis for stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 112-130.
    10. Guler, Ozan & Mariathasan, Mike & Mulier, Klaas & Okatan, Nejat G., 2019. "The Real Effects of Credit Supply: Review, Synthesis, and Future Directions," MPRA Paper 96542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Altavilla, Carlo & Boucinha, Miguel & Bouscasse, Paul, 2022. "Supply or Demand: What Drives Fluctuations in the Bank Loan Market?," Working Paper Series 2646, European Central Bank.
    12. Sobiech, Anna L. & Chronopoulos, Dimitris K. & Wilson, John O.S., 2021. "The real effects of bank taxation: Evidence for corporate financing and investment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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