IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pri/econom/2021-22.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform

Author

Listed:
  • Natasha Sarin

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Lawrence Summers

    (Harvard University and NBER)

  • Owen Zidar

    (Princeton University and NBER)

  • Eric Zwick

    (University of Chicago and NBER)

Abstract

We argue the revenue potential from increasing tax rates on capital gains may be substantially greater than previously understood. First, many prior studies focus primarily on short-run taxpayer responses, and so miss revenue from gains that are deferred when rates change. Second, the rise of pass-throughs and index funds has shifted the composition of capital gains in recent years, such that the share of gains that are highly elastic to the tax rate has likely declined. If some components are less elastic, then their elasticity should get more weight when scoring big changes because they will comprise more of the remaining tax base. Third, closer parity to income rates would provide a backstop to rest of tax system. Fourth, additional base-broadening reforms, like eliminating stepped-up basis, making charitable giving a realization event, reforming donor advised funds, and limiting opportunity zones to places with the highest poverty rates, will decrease the elasticity of the tax base to rate changes. Overall, we do not think the prevailing assumption of many in the scorekeeping community—that raising rates to top ordinary income levels would raise little revenue—is warranted. A crude calculation illustrates that raising capital gains rates to ordinary income levels could raise hundreds of billions more revenue over a decade than other leading estimates suggest.

Suggested Citation

  • Natasha Sarin & Lawrence Summers & Owen Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2021. "Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform," Working Papers 2021-22, Princeton University. Economics Department..
  • Handle: RePEc:pri:econom:2021-22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/capgains-sszz_0.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthew Smith & Owen M. Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2021. "Top Wealth in America: New Estimates and Implications for Taxing the Rich," NBER Working Papers 29374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Auten, Gerald E. & Burman, Leonard E. & Randolph, William C., 1989. "Estimation and Interpretation of Capital Gains Realization Behavior: Evidence From Panel Data," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 42(3), pages 353-374, September.
    3. Katrine Jakobsen & Kristian Jakobsen & Henrik Kleven & Gabriel Zucman, 2020. "Wealth Taxation and Wealth Accumulation: Theory and Evidence From Denmark," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 329-388.
    4. Ole Agersnap & Owen Zidar, 2021. "The Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains and Revenue-Maximizing Rates," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 399-416, December.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1775-1798 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Emmanuel Saez & Joel Slemrod & Seth H. Giertz, 2012. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income with Respect to Marginal Tax Rates: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 3-50, March.
    7. James M. Poterba, 1989. "Venture Capital and Capital Gains Taxation," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 3, pages 47-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Eichner, Matthew & Sinai, Todd, 2000. "Capital Gains Tax Realizations and Tax Rates: New Evidence From Time Series," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 53(3), pages 663-682, September.
    9. Danny Yagan, 2015. "Capital Tax Reform and the Real Economy: The Effects of the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(12), pages 3531-3563, December.
    10. Tim Dowd & Robert McClelland & Athiphat Muthitacharoen, 2015. "New Evidence on the Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 68(3), pages 511-544, September.
    11. Alex Bell & Raj Chetty & Xavier Jaravel & Neviana Petkova & John Van Reenen, 2019. "Who Becomes an Inventor in America? The Importance of Exposure to Innovation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 647-713.
    12. Gerald E. Auten & Joseph J. Cordes, 1991. "Policy Watch: Cutting Capital Gains Taxes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 181-192, Winter.
    13. Matthew Smith & Owen Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2020. "Top Wealth in America: New Estimates and Implications for Taxing the Rich," Working Papers 264, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    14. Ole Agersnap & Owen Zidar, 2020. "The Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains and Revenue-Maximizing Rates," Working Papers 272, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    15. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    16. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lora Dimitrova & Sapnoti K Eswar, 2023. "Capital Gains Tax, Venture Capital, and Innovation in Start-Ups," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1471-1519.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Natasha Sarin & Lawrence Summers & Owen Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2022. "Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform," Working Papers 298, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    2. Hines, James R. & Schaffa, Daniel, 2024. "Capital gains realizations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    3. Ole Agersnap & Owen Zidar, 2021. "The Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains and Revenue-Maximizing Rates," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 399-416, December.
    4. Antoine Ferey & Benjamin B. Lockwood & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2024. "Sufficient Statistics for Nonlinear Tax Systems with General Across-Income Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(10), pages 3206-3249, October.
    5. Ufuk Akcigit & John Grigsby & Tom Nicholas & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2018. "Taxation and Innovation in the 20th Century," NBER Working Papers 24982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Buhlmann, Florian & Doerrenberg, Philipp & Voget, Johannes & Loos, Benjamin, 2020. "How do taxes affect the trading behavior of private investors? Evidence from individual portfolio data," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-047, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Kindsgrab, Paul M., 2022. "Do higher income taxes on top earners trickle down? A local labor markets approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    8. Shahar Rotberg & Joseph B. Steinberg, 2024. "Tax Evasion and Capital Taxation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(7), pages 2488-2529.
    9. Adam M. Lavecchia & Alisa Tazhitdinova, 2021. "Permanent and Transitory Responses to Capital Gains Taxes: Evidence from a Lifetime Exemption in Canada," Department of Economics Working Papers 2021-04, McMaster University.
    10. Kristoffer Berg & Shafik Hebous, 2021. "Does A Wealth Tax Improve Equality of Opportunity?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9174, CESifo.
    11. Juliana Londoño-Vélez & Javier Ávila-Mahecha, 2021. "Enforcing Wealth Taxes in the Developing World: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Colombia," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 131-148, June.
    12. Boar, Corina & Knowles, Matthew, 2024. "Optimal taxation of risky entrepreneurial capital," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    13. Martin O'Connell & Kate Smith, 2024. "Optimal Sin Taxation and Market Power," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 34-70, October.
    14. David R. Agrawal & Dirk Foremny & Clara Martínez-Toledano, 2025. "Wealth Tax Mobility and Tax Coordination," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 402-430, January.
    15. Mikhail Golosov & Michael Graber & Magne Mogstad & David Novgorodsky, 2024. "How Americans Respond to Idiosyncratic and Exogenous Changes in Household Wealth and Unearned Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(2), pages 1321-1395.
    16. Sabrina T. Howell & Filippo Mezzanotti, 2019. "Financing Entrepreneurship through the Tax Code: Angel Investor Tax Credits," NBER Working Papers 26486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Thor O Thoresen & Marius A K Ring & Odd E Nygård & Jon Epland, 2022. "A Wealth Tax at Work [Behavioural Responses to a Wealth Tax]," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 68(4), pages 321-361.
    18. Marius A. K. Ring & Thor Olav Thoresen, 2022. "Wealth Taxation and Charitable Giving," CESifo Working Paper Series 9700, CESifo.
    19. Niemann, Rainer & Sureth, Caren, 2009. "Investment effects of capital gains taxation under simultaneous investment and abandonment flexibility," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 77, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    20. Daniel Waldenström, 2021. "Wealth and History: An Update," CESifo Working Paper Series 9366, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tax rates; capital gains; revenue;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pri:econom:2021-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bobray Bordelon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.