IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pre/wpaper/202257.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Electric Vehicles Market and Policy Conditions: Identifying South African Policy ``Potholes"

Author

Listed:
  • Jacobus Nel

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)

  • Roula Inglesi-Lotz

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)

Abstract

This study investigates the policy environment, specifically the policy ``potholes" (shortcomings), in South Africa and provides policy recommendations to accelerate electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the country. The EV markets in South Africa and Europe in a novel way, to add to the depth of the analysis and associated recommendations. To accomplish this, EV sales are forecasted by fitting an S-curve to the available sales data and assuming a 40 percent market share in 2050. Secondly, the number of years the South African EV market is lagging behind Europe's is estimated, both dynamically and statically. We make policy recommendations in the wake of a detailed analysis of the literature on the effects of policy intervention on EV adoption, the evaluation of the current policy environment, and the comparison. A supply-side policy might be best suited for the country's political environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacobus Nel & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2022. "Electric Vehicles Market and Policy Conditions: Identifying South African Policy ``Potholes"," Working Papers 202257, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202257
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.up.ac.za/media/shared/61/WP/wp_2022_57.zp228500.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shanjun Li & Lang Tong & Jianwei Xing & Yiyi Zhou, 2017. "The Market for Electric Vehicles: Indirect Network Effects and Policy Design," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(1), pages 89-133.
    2. Guoqiang Zhang & Yanmei Xu & Juan Zhang, 2016. "Consumer-Oriented Policy towards Diffusion of Electric Vehicles: City-Level Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Qiu, Y.Q. & Zhou, P. & Sun, H.C., 2019. "Assessing the effectiveness of city-level electric vehicle policies in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 22-31.
    4. Pillay, N.S. & Brent, A.C. & Musango, J.K., 2019. "Affordability of battery electric vehicles based on disposable income and the impact on provincial residential electricity requirements in South Africa," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1077-1087.
    5. Eunsung Kim & Eunnyeong Heo, 2019. "Key Drivers behind the Adoption of Electric Vehicle in Korea: An Analysis of the Revealed Preferences," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-15, December.
    6. Wenbo Li & Ruyin Long & Hong Chen & Feiyu Chen & Xiao Zheng & Muyi Yang, 2019. "Effect of Policy Incentives on the Uptake of Electric Vehicles in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-20, June.
    7. Seiho Kim & Jaesik Lee & Chulung Lee, 2017. "Does Driving Range of Electric Vehicles Influence Electric Vehicle Adoption?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-15, October.
    8. Geroski, P. A., 2000. "Models of technology diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 603-625, April.
    9. Gallagher, Kelly Sims & Muehlegger, Erich, 2011. "Giving green to get green? Incentives and consumer adoption of hybrid vehicle technology," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Wee, Sherilyn & Coffman, Makena & La Croix, Sumner, 2018. "Do electric vehicle incentives matter? Evidence from the 50 U.S. states," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(9), pages 1601-1610.
    11. Ou, Shiqi & Hao, Xu & Lin, Zhenhong & Wang, Hewu & Bouchard, Jessey & He, Xin & Przesmitzki, Steven & Wu, Zhixin & Zheng, Jihu & Lv, Renzhi & Qi, Liang & LaClair, Tim J., 2019. "Light-duty plug-in electric vehicles in China: An overview on the market and its comparisons to the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 747-761.
    12. Palmer, Kate & Tate, James E. & Wadud, Zia & Nellthorp, John, 2018. "Total cost of ownership and market share for hybrid and electric vehicles in the UK, US and Japan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 108-119.
    13. Yan, Shiyu, 2018. "The economic and environmental impacts of tax incentives for battery electric vehicles in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 53-63.
    14. Jenn, Alan & Springel, Katalin & Gopal, Anand R., 2018. "Effectiveness of electric vehicle incentives in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 349-356.
    15. Yiyi Zhou & Shanjun Li, 2018. "Technology Adoption and Critical Mass: The Case of the U.S. Electric Vehicle Market," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 423-480, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Austmann, Leonhard M., 2021. "Drivers of the electric vehicle market: A systematic literature review of empirical studies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    2. Martin Kalthaus & Jiatang Sun, 2021. "Determinants of Electric Vehicle Diffusion in China," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(3), pages 473-510, November.
    3. Shanjun Li & Xianglei Zhu & Yiding Ma & Fan Zhang & Hui Zhou, 2022. "The Role of Government in the Market for Electric Vehicles: Evidence from China," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 450-485, March.
    4. Mekky, Maher F. & Collins, Alan R., 2024. "The Impact of state policies on electric vehicle adoption -A panel data analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    5. Haidar, Bassem & Aguilar Rojas, Maria Teresa, 2022. "The relationship between public charging infrastructure deployment and other socio-economic factors and electric vehicle adoption in France," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    6. Alali, Layla & Niesten, Eva & Gagliardi, Dimitri, 2022. "The impact of UK financial incentives on the adoption of electric fleets: The moderation effect of GDP change," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 200-220.
    7. Luo, Qi & Yin, Yunlei & Chen, Pengyu & Zhan, Zhenfei & Saigal, Romesh, 2022. "Dynamic subsidies for synergistic development of charging infrastructure and electric vehicle adoption," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 117-136.
    8. Peng, Yuan & Bai, Xuemei, 2023. "What EV users say about policy efficacy: Evidence from Shanghai," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 16-26.
    9. Burra, Lavan T. & Sommer, Stephan & Vance, Colin, 2023. "Free-Ridership in Subsidies for Company- and Private Electric Vehicles," Ruhr Economic Papers 1015, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Münzel, Christiane & Plötz, Patrick & Sprei, Frances & Gnann, Till, 2019. "How large is the effect of financial incentives on electric vehicle sales? – A global review and European analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Kondev, Bozhil & Dixon, James & Zhou, Zhaoqi & Sabyrbekov, Rahat & Sultanaliev, Kanat & Hirmer, Stephanie A., 2023. "Putting the foot down: Accelerating EV uptake in Kyrgyzstan," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 87-96.
    12. Wang, Kunlun & Zheng, Leven J. & Lin, Boqiang, 2024. "Demand-side incentives, competition, and firms’ innovative activities: Evidence from automobile industry in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    13. Zhang, Junjie & Jia, Rongwen & Yang, Hangjun & Dong, Kangyin, 2022. "Does electric vehicle promotion in the public sector contribute to urban transport carbon emissions reduction?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 151-163.
    14. Briseño, Hugo & Ramirez-Nafarrate, Adrian & Araz, Ozgur M., 2021. "A multivariate analysis of hybrid and electric vehicles sales in Mexico," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    15. Ji, Dandan & Gan, Hongcheng, 2022. "Effects of providing total cost of ownership information on below-40 young consumers’ intent to purchase an electric vehicle: A case study in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    16. Jinru Wang & Zhenwu Shi & Jie Liu & Hongrui Zhang, 2023. "Promoting “NEVs Pilot Policy” as an Effective Way for Reducing Urban Transport Carbon Emissions: Empirical Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-24, July.
    17. Santos, Georgina & Rembalski, Sebastian, 2021. "Do electric vehicles need subsidies in the UK?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    18. Balali, Yasaman & Stegen, Sascha, 2021. "Review of energy storage systems for vehicles based on technology, environmental impacts, and costs," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    19. Qiu, Y.Q. & Tsan Sheng Ng, Adam & Zhou, P., 2022. "Optimizing urban electric vehicle incentive policy mixes in China: Perspective of residential preference heterogeneity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    20. Azarafshar, Roshanak & Vermeulen, Wessel N., 2020. "Electric vehicle incentive policies in Canadian provinces," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    electric vehicles in developing countries; market comparison; policy analysis; forecasting technology adoption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202257. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.