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Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Afees A. Salisu

    (Department for Management of Science and Technology Development, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Faculty of Business Administration, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)

Abstract

We use constant and time-varying parameters vector autoregressive models that allow the estimation of the impact of monetary policy shocks on volatility of macroeconomic variables in the United Kingdom. Estimates suggest that an increase in the policy rate by 1% is associated with a rise in unemployment and inflation volatility of about 10% on average, with peaks observed during episodes of local and global crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 202041, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202041
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    Cited by:

    1. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Karmakar, Sayar & Das, Sonali, 2022. "Forecasting output growth of advanced economies over eight centuries: The role of gold market volatility as a proxy of global uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Laine, Olli-Matti, 2022. "Evidence about the transmission of monetary policy," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number e53, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-Linear SVAR; Stochastic Volatility; Monetary Policy Shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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