Structural Breaks and Predictive Regressions Models of South African Equity Premium
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
References listed on IDEAS
- Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008.
"A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2412, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2006.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch & Athanasse Zafirov, 2021. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction II," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 21-85, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2005.
"Optimal Tests For Nested Model Selection With Underlying Parameter Instability,"
Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 962-990, October.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2002. "Optimal Tests for Nested Model Selection with Underlying Parameter Instability," Working Papers 02-05, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2007.
"Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 651-707.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2002.
"Market timing and return prediction under model instability,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 495-510, December.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Market timing and return prediction under model instability," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24932, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2002. "Market Timing and Return Prediction under Model Instability," FMG Discussion Papers dp412, Financial Markets Group.
- Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1996.
"On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 385-424, June.
- Shmuel Kandel & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1995. "On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004.
"Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 19-23, May.
- John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 10263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vuolteenaho, Tuomo & Campbell, John, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," Scholarly Articles 3196090, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2000.
"The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2219-2257, October.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 1999. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm124, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2009.
- Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise & Josine Uwilingiye, 2016.
"Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Predictability in South Africa: Evidence from a Large Number of Predictors,"
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(8), pages 1935-1955, August.
- Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise & Josine Uwilingiye, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Predictability in South Africa: Evidence from a Large Number of Predictors," Working Papers 201122, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:5:p:1177-89 is not listed on IDEAS
- Campbell, John Y., 1987.
"Stock returns and the term structure,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
- John Y. Campbell, 1985. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 1626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John, 1987. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," Scholarly Articles 3207699, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001.
"Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
- Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 1999. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 2223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 1999. "Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns," Staff Reports 77, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2009.
"Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1583-1628, August.
- Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2007. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," NBER Working Papers 12814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stambaugh, Robert F. & Pástor, Luboš, 2007. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," CEPR Discussion Papers 6076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2008. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," NBER Working Papers 13804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014.
"Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers 2010-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2011. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Working Papers CoFie-02-2011, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
- Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J, 1992.
"Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 467-509, June.
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1991. "Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 3790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John H. Cochrane, 2008.
"The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
- John H. Cochrane, 2006. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 12026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2003.
"Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 639-654, May.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 1999. "Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2437, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2002.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Predicting the Equity Premium With Dividend Ratios," NBER Working Papers 8788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986.
"Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
- Donald B. Keim & Robert F. Stambaugh, "undated". "Predicting Returns in the Stock and Bond Markets," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul, 2000.
"Predictability in International Asset Returns: A Reexamination,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 601-620, December.
- Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 1999. "Predictability in international asset returns: a reexamination," Working Papers 1997-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- David E. Rapach & Mark E. Wohar, 2006. "Structural Breaks and Predictive Regression Models of Aggregate U.S. Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 238-274.
- Jacob Boudoukh & Roni Michaely & Matthew Richardson & Michael R. Roberts, 2007.
"On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 877-915, April.
- Jacob Boudoukh & Roni Michaely & Matthew Richardson & Michael Roberts, 2004. "On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 10651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996.
"Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 821-862, February.
- Nelson, Charles R, 1976. "Inflation and Rates of Return on Common Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 471-483, May.
- Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kellard, Neil M. & Nankervis, John C. & Papadimitriou, Fotios I., 2010. "Predicting the equity premium with dividend ratios: Reconciling the evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 539-551, September.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 2000.
"Testing for structural change in conditional models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1998. "Testing for Structural Change in Conditional Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 310., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate structural break test with Hansen's fixed regressor bootstrap," Statistical Software Components RTZ00089, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "REGHBREAK: RATS procedure to perform structural break test with bootstrapped p-values," Statistical Software Components RTS00176, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2005. "Macro variables and international stock return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 137-166.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 328-383, Elsevier.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014.
"Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers 2010-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2011. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Working Papers CoFie-02-2011, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
- Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Instability of return prediction models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 274-315, June.
- Demetrescu, Matei & Georgiev, Iliyan & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2022.
"Testing for episodic predictability in stock returns,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 85-113.
- Demetrescu, Matei & Georgiev, Iliyan & Rodrigues, Paulo MM & Taylor, AM Robert, 2019. "Testing for Episodic Predictability in Stock Returns," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 24137, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
- Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Matei Demetrescu, 2019. "Testing for Episodic Predictability in Stock Returns," Working Papers w201906, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016.
"Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators unstable?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1193-1207.
- Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2015. "Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators instable?," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113079, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2015. "Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators instable?," Kiel Working Papers 1987, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Fabian Baetje & Lukas Menkhoff, 2016. "Equity Premium Prediction: Are Economic and Technical Indicators Unstable?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1552, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013.
"Advances in Forecasting under Instability,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324,
Elsevier.
- Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015.
"The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability,"
International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
- Seema Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2015. "The Financial Econometrics of Price Discovery and Predictability," Monash Economics Working Papers 06-15, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Schrimpf, Andreas, 2010.
"International stock return predictability under model uncertainty,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1256-1282, November.
- Schrimpf, Andreas, 2008. "International Stock Return Predictability Under Model Uncertainty," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-048, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
- Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
- Hai Lin & Daniel Quill & Henk Berkman, 2016. "Information diffusion and the predictability of New Zealand stock market returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 56(3), pages 749-785, September.
- David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Robert Sollis & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2021.
"Real‐time detection of regimes of predictability in the US equity premium,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 45-70, January.
- Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Sollis, Robert & Taylor, AM Robert, 2020. "Real-Time Detection of Regimes of Predictability in the U.S. Equity Premium," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 27775, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016.
"Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1312-1332, November.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations," Working Papers 80, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal portfolio choice under decision-based model combinations," Working Paper 2014/15, Norges Bank.
- Smith, Simon C., 2021. "International stock return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
- Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2016.
"Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors,"
Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers)
06, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
- Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2017. "Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2017, Bank of Finland.
- Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2016.
"Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors,"
Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers)
06, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
- Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2017. "Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors," Research Discussion Papers 1/2017, Bank of Finland.
- Yufeng Han, 2010. "On the Economic Value of Return Predictability," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 1-33, May.
- José Afonso Faias & Tiago Castel-Branco, 2018. "Out-Of-Sample Stock Return Prediction Using Higher-Order Moments," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(06), pages 1-27, September.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_001 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ferreira, Miguel A. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2011.
"Forecasting stock market returns: The sum of the parts is more than the whole,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 514-537, June.
- Miguel A. Ferreira & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2008. "Forecasting Stock Market Returns: The Sum of the Parts is More than the Whole," NBER Working Papers 14571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ma, Feng & Wang, Ruoxin & Lu, Xinjie & Wahab, M.I.M., 2021. "A comprehensive look at stock return predictability by oil prices using economic constraint approaches," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
- John Y. Campbell, 2008.
"Viewpoint: Estimating the equity premium,"
Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 1-21, February.
- John Y. Campbell, 2008. "Viewpoint: Estimating the equity premium," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 1-21, February.
More about this item
Keywords
Predictive regression model; equity premium; structural breaks; South Africa;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-AFR-2012-03-08 (Africa)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.