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Zimbabwe’s Black Market for Foreign Exchange

Author

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  • Albert Makochekanwa

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

This paper looks into the changes of the black market premium for foreign exchange in Zimbabwe. Generally, the black market for foreign exchange arises as a direct consequence of the adoption of exchange rate controls in many developing economies facing substantial macroeconomic imbalances. Despite its negative impact on Zimbabwe’s economy, this market has not, so far, attracted the attention of researchers. The research attempts to describe the functioning of the black market and find out the determinants of the parallel premium based on a stock-flow model as well as to investigate whether inflation Granger causes the parallel exchange rate. Estimated results reveal that the determinants of the black market premium are international foreign reserves, real exchange rate, lagged values of the black market premium, expected rate of devaluation, money supply and inflation. On the other hand, inflation and black market are found to Granger-cause each other during the period under consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Albert Makochekanwa, 2007. "Zimbabwe’s Black Market for Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 200713, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:200713
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohsen Fardmanesh & Seymour Douglas, 2003. "Foreign Exchange Controls, Fiscal and Monetary Policy, and the Black Market Premium," Working Papers 876, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    2. Ghei, Nita & Kiguel, Miguel A., 1992. "Dual and multiple exchange rate systems in developing countries : some empirical evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 881, The World Bank.
    3. ten Berge, J.M., 1991. "Towards an understanding of the dynamics of the parallel market in foreign exchange : the case of Surinam," ISS Working Papers - General Series 18911, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    4. Rudiger Dornbusch & Daniel Valente Dantas & Clarice Pechman & Roberto de Rezende Rocha & Demetrio SimÅes, 1983. "The Black Market for Dollars in Brazil," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 25-40.
    5. Pinto, Brian, 1988. "Black markets for foreign exchange, real exchange rates, and inflation : overnight versus gradual reform in sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 84, The World Bank.
    6. Fardmanesh, Mohsen & Douglas, Seymour, 2003. "Foreign Exchange Controls, Fiscal and Monetary Policy, and the Black Market Premium," Center Discussion Papers 28514, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    7. Lindauer, David L., 1989. "Parallel, fragmented, or black? Defining market structure in developing economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(12), pages 1871-1880, December.
    8. Denise Hazlett & Jeela Ganje, 1999. "An Experiment with Official and Parallel Foreign Exchange Markets in a Developing Country," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 392-401, December.
    9. Muco, Marta & Papapanagos, Harry & Sanfey, Peter, 1999. "The Determinants of Official and Free-Market Exchange Rates in Albania during Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 534-552, September.
    10. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Makochekanwa, Albert & Kwaramba, Marko, 2010. "Dwindling access to basic services in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 28271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Michael Takudzwa Pasara & Nigel Nyajeka & Steven Henry Dunga, 2023. "Enhancing Foreign Currency Allocation for Private Sector Development – Case of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Forex Auction System," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 11(2), pages 72-89.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Black Market Exchange Rate; Black Market Premium; Foreign Exchange Controls; Cointegration; Granger Causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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