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Projection des taux de fécondité de la population algérienne à l’horizon 2050
[Forecasting the age-specific fertility rates of the Algerian population up to 2050]

Author

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  • FLICI, Farid

Abstract

This paper aims at forecasting the fertility age pattern of the Algerian population up to 2050. To this end, we use the Lee-Carter model in his fertility-adapted version. The used data is issued from the publications of the Office of National Statistics for the period from 1964 to 2014. Missing data were estimated with an S-logistic function.

Suggested Citation

  • FLICI, Farid, 2016. "Projection des taux de fécondité de la population algérienne à l’horizon 2050 [Forecasting the age-specific fertility rates of the Algerian population up to 2050]," MPRA Paper 99077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99077
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/99077/1/MPRA_paper_99077.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Ronald D., 1993. "Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 187-202, August.
    2. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; forecasting; Lee-Carter; Algeria.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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