IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/98796.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

China’s Debt Revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Sun, Lixin

Abstract

This paper updates the dataset on the structure of China’s debt published in Sun (2015, 2019) with the debt effects. The new dataset extends the sample to the end of 2018 including the collected annual and the estimated quarterly data covering the period 1985-2018, and presents the updated changes in deleverage ratios for all debt categories in China. In addition, we examine the effects of the debt on the monetary policy transmission and the macroeconomy in China with the GMM approach and a VAR model. We find that the monetary policy transmissions have been weakened in times of high indebtedness by both the public and the private debt despite at the heterogenous magnitude. Our study sheds new lights to policy design and debt management in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, Lixin, 2019. "China’s Debt Revisited," MPRA Paper 98796, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98796
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/98796/1/MPRA_paper_98796.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ms. Anastasia Guscina & Mr. Olivier D Jeanne, 2006. "Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries: A New Data Set," IMF Working Papers 2006/098, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Gaston Gelos & Federico Grinberg & Shujaat Khan & Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Machiko Narita & Umang Rawat, 2024. "Has Higher Household Indebtedness Weakened Monetary Policy Transmission?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(1), pages 325-371, February.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    4. Miss Yinqiu Lu & Tao Sun, 2013. "Local Government Financing Platforms in China: A Fortune or Misfortune?," IMF Working Papers 2013/243, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    6. Silvana Tenreyro & Gregory Thwaites, 2016. "Pushing on a String: US Monetary Policy Is Less Powerful in Recessions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 43-74, October.
    7. Christian Dembiermont & Mathias Drehmann & Siriporn Muksakunratana, 2013. "How much does the private sector really borrow - a new database for total credit to the private non-financial sector," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    8. Bruno Albuquerque, 2019. "One Size Fits All? Monetary Policy and Asymmetric Household Debt Cycles in U.S. States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1309-1353, August.
    9. Sun, Lixin & Ford, J.L. & Dickinson, David G., 2010. "Bank loans and the effects of monetary policy in China: VAR/VECM approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 65-97, March.
    10. Guy Debelle, 2004. "Macroeconomic implications of rising household debt," BIS Working Papers 153, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Sun, Lixin, 2015. "China’s Debt: Structure, Determinants and Sustainability," MPRA Paper 68548, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2015.
    13. Lixin Sun, 2019. "The structure and sustainability of China’s debt," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(3), pages 695-715.
    14. Missale, Alessandro, 1999. "Public Debt Management," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290858.
    15. S M Ali Abbas & Jakob E Christensen, 2010. "The Role of Domestic Debt Markets in Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Low-Income Countries and Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 209-255, April.
    16. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2010. "The worldwide governance indicators : methodology and analytical issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5430, The World Bank.
    17. J. C. G. Boot & W. Feibes & J. H. C. Lisman, 1967. "Further Methods of Derivation of Quarterly Figures from Annual Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 16(1), pages 65-75, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sun, Lixin, 2015. "China’s Debt: Structure, Determinants and Sustainability," MPRA Paper 68548, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2015.
    2. Boukhatem, Jamel & Kaabi, Malèk, 2015. "Dette publique, qualité institutionnelle et croissance économique dans les pays de la région MENA : analyse par la méthode des moments généralisés [Public debt, institutional quality and economic g," MPRA Paper 65756, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2015.
    3. Andrea F Presbitero, 2012. "Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 24(4), pages 606-626, September.
    4. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil & Luo, Yun, 2018. "Revisiting the bi-directional causality between debt and growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-74.
    5. Sun, Lixin, 2016. "Corporate Deleveraging and Macroeconomic Policies: Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 69140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Niels Gilbert & Jeroen Hessel & Silvie Verkaart, 2013. "Towards a Stable Monetary Union: What Role for Eurobonds?," DNB Working Papers 379, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. Spilioti, Stella & Vamvoukas, George, 2015. "The impact of government debt on economic growth: An empirical investigation of the Greek market," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 34-40.
    8. Rant, Vasja & Marinč, Matej & Porenta, Jan, 2021. "Debt and convergence: Evidence from the EU member states," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    9. Romain Bouis & Ane Kathrine Christensen & Boris Cournède, 2013. "Deleveraging: Challenges, Progress and Policies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1077, OECD Publishing.
    10. Attard, Juergen, 2019. "Public Debt and Economic Growth nexus: A Dynamic Panel ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 96023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Vicente Esteve & Cecilio Tamarit, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth in Spain, 1851–2013," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(2), pages 219-249, May.
    12. Gopal Prasad Bhatta, PhD & Anu Mishra, 2020. "Estimating Optimum Growth-Maximizing Public Debt Threshold for Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 32(2), pages 1-28, October.
    13. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    14. Dimitrios Asteriou & Keith Pilbeam & Cecilia Eny Pratiwi, 2021. "Public debt and economic growth: panel data evidence for Asian countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 270-287, April.
    15. João Basilio Pereima & Manuela Merki & Fernando Motta Correia, 2016. "Economic Growth And Public Debt: Addressing Unobserved Heterogeneity," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 101, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    16. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2019. "Re-examining the debt-growth nexus: A grouped fixed-effect approach," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2019-21, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    17. Bofinger, Peter & Buch, Claudia M. & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "Gegen eine rückwärtsgewandte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2013/14 [Against a backward-looking economic policy. Annual Report 2013/14]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201314, September.
    18. Łukasz Rawdanowicz, 2014. "Choosing the pace of fiscal consolidation," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2013(1), pages 91-119.
    19. Ibrahim Ari & Muammer Koc, 2018. "Sustainable Financing for Sustainable Development: Understanding the Interrelations between Public Investment and Sovereign Debt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-25, October.
    20. Willem Vanlaer & Wim Marneffe & Lode Vereeck & Johan Vanovertveldt, 2015. "Does debt predict growth? An empirical analysis of the relationship between total debt and economic output," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 4(2), pages 79-103, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China’s Debt Dataset; Non-financial Private and Public Debt; Monetary Policy Transmission; GMM Approach; VAR Model; Chinese Economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98796. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.