IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/97100.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The nexus of trade, employment and economic growth: evidence from Palestine

Author

Listed:
  • Abugamea, Gaber

Abstract

The economies, trade and employment in the Palestinian territories (PTs) in the Gaza Strip and West Bank have undergone numerous shocks and instabilities over the past four decades. Palestinian External trade experienced numerous difficulties and in particular Israel imposing for restriction on Palestinian trade with the neighboring countries and the rest of the world as a whole. Meanwhile, employment rates in PTs decreased sharply by Israeli restrictions which imposed on Palestinian labor movement into Israel since 1994 and intensified with the Palestinian uprising in 2000 year., This study uses the cointegration and Granger causality tests to examine both the long run and short run relationships among trade, employment and economic growth of Palestine for the time period 1968-2017 . The econometrics results based on vector error correction models (VECM) confirm the existence of long run relation between trade, employment and economic growth and show that both employment and GDP are main determinants of trade but not trade and GDP determinants of employment or trade and employment determinants of GDP. Causality tests confirm VECM results that changes on economic growth in the long run cause change in trade in the short run. By reconciling causality results with that of VECM, we conclude an existence of marginal causality runs from GDP to employment and from trade to employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Abugamea, Gaber, 2019. "The nexus of trade, employment and economic growth: evidence from Palestine," MPRA Paper 97100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:97100
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/97100/1/MPRA_paper_97100.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2003. "Institutions, trade, and growth : revisiting the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3004, The World Bank.
    2. Giovanni S.F. Bruno & Anna M. Falzoni & Rodolfo Helg, 2004. "Measuring the effect of globalization on labour demand elasticity: An empirical application to OECD countries," KITeS Working Papers 153, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Feb 2004.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Slaughter, Matthew J., 2001. "International trade and labor-demand elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 27-56, June.
    5. Gaber H. Abugamea, 2010. "The Competitiveness of the Palestinian Foreign Trade: A Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers 541, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2010.
    6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    7. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2003. "Institutions, trade, and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 133-162, January.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Chow, Peter C. Y., 1987. "Causality between export growth and industrial development : Empirial evidence from the NICs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-63, June.
    11. Paul Krugman, 1986. "Strategic Trade Policy and the New International Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262610450, April.
    12. Rhys Jenkins & Kunal Sen, 2006. "International Trade and Manufacturing Employment in the South: Four Country Case Studies," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 299-322.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baomin Dong & Jiong Gong & Kaixiang Peng & Zhongxiu Zhao, 2015. "Little Divergence: Evidence from Cotton Textiles in Japan and China 1868–1930," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 776-796, November.
    2. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    3. Gyasi, Genevieve, 2020. "The Impact of Trade Agreement Policy on Employment," MPRA Paper 101307, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Czujack, Corinna & Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Ginsburgh, Victor, 1995. "On long-run price comovements between paintings and prints," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 269, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    5. Ramona Dumitriu & Razvan Stefanescu, 2015. "The Relationship Between Romanian Exports And Economic Growth After The Adhesion To European Union," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 17-26.
    6. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    7. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Andreas G. Georgantopoulos, 2013. "Tourism Expansion and Economic Development: Var/Vecm Analysis and Forecasts for the Case of India," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(4), pages 464-482, April.
    9. Hakimi, Abdelaziz & Hamdi, Helmi, 2016. "Trade liberalization, FDI inflows, environmental quality and economic growth: A comparative analysis between Tunisia and Morocco," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1445-1456.
    10. Waithe, Kimberly & Lorde, Troy & Francis, Brian, 2010. "Export-led Growth: A Case Study of Mexico," MPRA Paper 95557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Khandaker Jahangir Alam & Khairul Kabir Sumon, 2020. "Causal Relationship between Trade Openness and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis of Asian Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 118-126.
    12. Francisco de Castro & José Manuel González-Páramo & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2004. "Fiscal consolidation in Spain: dynamic interdependence of public spending and revenues," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(1), pages 193-207, January.
    13. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2005. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence From South Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 43(4), pages 472-488, December.
    14. Ebenezer, Appiah Collins & Jatoe, John Baptist D. & Mensa-Bonsu, Akwasi, 2018. "Food Price Sensitivity To Changes In Petroleum Price And Exchange Rate In Ghana: A Cointegration Analysis," 2018 Conference (2nd), August 8-11, Kumasi, Ghana 277791, Ghana Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Le Fur, Eric, 2020. "Dynamics of the global fine art market prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 167-180.
    16. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2016. "The Effects of Chinese Interest Rates and Inflation: A Decomposition of The Fisher Effect," MPRA Paper 78160, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    17. Ismail Genc & Abdullah Jubain & Abdullah Al-Mutairi, 2010. "Economic versus financial integration or decoupling between the US and the GCC," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(20), pages 1577-1583.
    18. Eleni Thanou & Dikaios Tserkezos, 2008. "Nonlinear Diachronic Effects Between Stock Returns and Mutual Fund Flows: Additional Empirical Evidence from the Athens Stocks Exchange," Working Papers 0826, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    19. Sahoo, Auro Kumar & Sahoo, Dukhabandhu & Sahu, Naresh Chandra, 2014. "Mining export, industrial production and economic growth: A cointegration and causality analysis for India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 27-34.
    20. Zhihui Lv & Amanda M. Y. Chu & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Modelling Economic Growth, Carbon Emissions, and Fossil Fuel Consumption in China: Cointegration and Multivariate Causality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-35, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; Employment; Economic growth; Cointegration; Granger causality tests; Palestine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:97100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.