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Impact Analysis of Energy Price Reform and Cash Subsidy Payment in Iran: A CGE Approach

Author

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  • Asghar, Shahmoradi
  • Iman, Haqiqi
  • Zahedi, Raziyeh

Abstract

This paper studies the impacts of domestic energy price increase along with cash subsidy payment to households and also to production sectors. We applied the MOF_CGE (Ministry of Finance_Computable General Equilibrium Model) which considers transport and trade margins and introduces a modified Armington aggregator for foreign transactions. The data is based on the 2001 social accounting matrix which includes energy carriers. We assume two policy scenarios for the price increase and two scenarios for cash subsidy payment. The energy prices increase up to FOB price in one scenario and to the 75% of FOB in another. The government pays 50% of the policy revenue to households in one scenario and 60% in another with 30% to production sectors in both. We found that increasing the household share from 50% to 60% will compensate half of the welfare reduction. The results show that in short-run the welfare and production decline but imports and exports increase. Comparing with those studies with no redistribution consideration, we found that the cash payment policy compensates the welfare and productivity reduction to some extent.

Suggested Citation

  • Asghar, Shahmoradi & Iman, Haqiqi & Zahedi, Raziyeh, 2011. "Impact Analysis of Energy Price Reform and Cash Subsidy Payment in Iran: A CGE Approach," MPRA Paper 95809, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:95809
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Urge-Vorsatz, Diana & Miladinova, Gergana & Paizs, Laszlo, 2006. "Energy in transition: From the iron curtain to the European Union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(15), pages 2279-2297, October.
    2. Davood Manzoor & Asghar Shahmoradi & Iman Haqiqi, 2012. "An analysis of energy price reform: a CGE approach," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 36(1), pages 35-54, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Haqiqi, Iman & Bahalou, Marziyeh & Shamsaee, Arezoo, 2017. "An Economic General Equilibrium Model for Evaluation of Production Support Policies in Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 95865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Haqiqi, Iman & Yasharel, Sepideh, 2018. "Removing Fossil Fuel Subsidies to Help the Poor," MPRA Paper 95907, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Zahra Zarepour, 2022. "Short- and long-run macroeconomic impacts of the 2010 Iranian energy subsidy reform," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(10), pages 1-32, October.
    4. Aghababaei, Mohammad Ebrahim, 2019. "General Equilibrium Resource Elasticity in an Open Resource-Abundant Economy," MPRA Paper 97851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Raei, Hasan & Maleki, Abbas & Farajzadeh, Zakariya, 2024. "Analysis of energy policy reform in Iran: Energy and emission intensity changes," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1535-1557.
    6. Mortazavi Kakhaki, Morteza & Haqiqi, Iman & Mahdavi Adeli, Mohammad, 2013. "Regional Equality of Opportunities and Income: A General Equilibrium Modeling for Iran," MPRA Paper 95822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Haqiqi, Iman & Manzoor, Davood, 2012. "Environmental Impacts of Phasing out Energy Subsidies," MPRA Paper 95688, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    8. Saeed Solaymani, 2021. "Energy subsidy reform evaluation research – reviews in Iran," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 520-538, June.
    9. Bahalou, Marziyeh & Haqiqi, Iman, 2016. "A General Equilibrium Model with Labor-Leisure and Domestic-Abroad Choice for Assessment of Labor Migration in a Small Open Economy," MPRA Paper 95863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Haqiqi, Iman & Bahalou, Marziyeh & Hamidi, Razieh, 2014. "Measurement and Evaluation of Equality of Opportunity: A Numerical Look at Education, Health, and Income Inequality," MPRA Paper 95866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mirshojaeian Hosseini , Hossein & Majed , Vahid & Kaneko , Shinji, 2015. "The Effects of Energy Subsidy Reform on Fuel Demand in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 10(2), pages 23-47, January.
    12. Haqiqi, Iman & Mirian, Narges, 2015. "A Financial General Equilibrium Model for Assessment of Financial Sector Policies in Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 95841, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy Prices; Cash Payment; Computable General Equilibrium; welfare; government policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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