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Validating Prediction of a CGE Model of India: An Introspection

Author

Listed:
  • Pohit, Sanjib
  • Chadha, Rajesh
  • Pratap, Devender
  • Ghosh, B. K.

Abstract

Although computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been used extensively to evaluate the potential impact of economic reforms, few efforts have been made to assess the predictive power of the models. This paper attempts to test the performance of one such model, viz., Chadha, Pohit, Deardorff and Stern’s study of India’s unilateral trade/domestic policy reforms in the 1990s. Our model does not incorporate many of the rigidities/features of the Indian economy. Nevertheless, our model can perform quite well at simulating, if not forecasting, actual changes in sectoral output and exports

Suggested Citation

  • Pohit, Sanjib & Chadha, Rajesh & Pratap, Devender & Ghosh, B. K., 1999. "Validating Prediction of a CGE Model of India: An Introspection," MPRA Paper 94860, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:94860
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/94860/1/MPRA_paper_94860.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kehoe, Timothy J & Polo, Clemente & Sancho, Ferran, 1995. "An Evaluation of the Performance of an Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Spanish Economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(1), pages 115-141, June.
    2. Arvind Panagariya, 1999. "Trade Policy in South Asia: Recent Liberalisation and Future Agenda," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 353-378, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE; Validation; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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