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Futures of automobile industry and challenges on sustainable development and mobility

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  • Moniz, António
  • Paulos, Margarida Ramires

Abstract

Portugal had only very few foresight exercises on the automobile sector, and the most recent one was a survey held in a project on work organisation systems in the automobile industry, its recent historical paths and the special strategies of location of companies (the WorTiS project). This involved several teams with different disciplinary backgrounds and from two Portuguese universities. The provisional main results of the first round of a Delphi survey held in Portugal on the automotive sector were already published, but a further analysis was not yet done. This foresight survey was done under the WorTiS project, developed in 2004 by IET – Research Centre on Enterprise and Work Innovation (at FCT-UNL), and financed by the Portuguese Ministry of Science and Technology. Some of this experience on foresight analysis is also been transferred to other projects, namely the WORKS project on work organisation restructuring in the knowledge society that received the support from EC and still is running. The majority of experts considered having an average of less knowledge in almost all the scenario topics presented. This means that information on the automotive industry is not spread enough among academics or experts in related fields (regional scientists, innovation economists, engineers, sociologists). Some have a good knowledge but in very specialised fields. Others have expertise on foresight, or macroeconomics, or management sciences, but feel insecure on issues related with futures of automobile sector. Nevertheless, we considered specially the topics where the experts considered themselves to have some knowledge. There were no “irrelevant” topics considered as such by the expert panel. There are also no topics that are not considered a need for co-operation. The lack of technological infrastructures was not considered as a hindered factor for the accomplishment of any scenario. The experts’ panel considered no other international competence besides US, Japan or Germany in these topics. Special focus will be made in this paper on the topic 2. Public policy and automobile industries, and more specifically on the technological and/or research policies issues, where one can specify the automobile’s role in transport policies with further implications like environment, safety, energy, mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Moniz, António & Paulos, Margarida Ramires, 2008. "Futures of automobile industry and challenges on sustainable development and mobility," MPRA Paper 9022, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9022
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Machado, Tiago & Moniz, António, 2005. "Models and Practices in the Motor Vehicle Industry – contrasting cases from the Portuguese experience," MPRA Paper 6171, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2005.
    2. Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 575-582, December.
    3. Huss, William R., 1988. "A move toward scenario analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 377-388.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nuno Boavida & Manuel Baumann & António B. Moniz & Jens Schippl & Max Reichenbach & Marcel Weil, 2013. "Technology transition towards electric mobility - technology assessment as a tool for policy design," IET Working Papers Series 04/2013, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology.
    2. Manuel Baumann & Nuno Boavida & Maria João Maia & Patrick Lichtner & António Brandão Moniz, 2012. "Renewable Energy Systems: the theme for the PACITA summer school on TA, Liège, Belgium, 25 28 June 2012," Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, vol. 8(8), pages 95-101, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    automotive industry; scenario; economical co-operation; technology; Delphi survey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • A14 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Sociology of Economics
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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