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صياغة السياسات الاقتصادية الكلية في الجزائر: هل من حاجة إلى الاسترشاد بالنماذج الاقتصادية القياسية؟
[The formulation of macroeconomic policies in Algeria: Is it necessary to be guided by Macroeconometric models?]

Author

Listed:
  • Benzarour, Choukri

Abstract

This paper reviewed some of the debate among researchers about usefulness of econometric models and doubts surrounding their use. Economists and policy makers frequently uses econometric model to forecasts the effects of choosing one policy or another. Despite the severe criticism made against the standard econometric models, this branch of science has continued to grow. The goal of this paper is to illustrate the potential usefulness of macro-econometric models as a tool to assist public policy makers. We provide a case study and analysis of the fundamentals of the general level of prices (GLP) by introducing and estimating an econometric model in accordance with the methodology of co-integration. The contribution of each variable was quantified and the responsibility of the actors other than the bank of Algeria was established. Using out of sample dynamic simulations, the paper concludes with policy implications of several possible scenarios. Key words: econometric models, co-integration, fundamentals of general level of prices, simulation, scenarios and policy implication.

Suggested Citation

  • Benzarour, Choukri, 2014. "صياغة السياسات الاقتصادية الكلية في الجزائر: هل من حاجة إلى الاسترشاد بالنماذج الاقتصادية القياسية؟ [The formulation of macroeconomic policies in Algeria: Is it necessary to be guided by Macroecono," MPRA Paper 87071, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 May 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:87071
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher A. Sims, 1989. "Models and Their Uses," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 489-494.
    2. Henk Don, 2004. "How econometric models help policy makers; theory and practice," CPB Discussion Paper 27.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. David A. Freedman, 2009. "Limits of Econometrics," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 1(1), pages 5-17, April.
    4. Henk Don, 2004. "How econometric models help policy makers; theory and practice," CPB Discussion Paper 27, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    6. Michael Woodford, 2009. "Convergence in Macroeconomics: Elements of the New Synthesis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 267-279, January.
    7. Zellner, Arnold, 2007. "Philosophy and objectives of econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 331-339, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    econometric models; cointegration; fundamentals of the general price level; simulation; scenarios and the implication for economic policies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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