IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/8658.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Oil Prices in Turkey on Macroeconomics

Author

Listed:
  • Aktas, Erkan
  • Özenç, Çiğdem
  • Arıca, Feyza

Abstract

This study explores the impact of fluctuations in oil prices on Turkey's economy. The data used in this study covers the years from 1991 to 2008. Macro-economic variables used in this study are GNP, inflation, unemployment and the ratio of exports to imports. VAR model is used in estimating the macro-economic impact of oil prices. Based on the results of the analysis conducted, a meaningful relationship of oil prices with inflation, unemployment and the ratio of exports to imports is estimated. However, it is observed that a rise in oil prices do not have any substantial impact on macro-economic variables. While an inverse relationship of oil prices with the ratio of exports to imports and unemployment is estimated, a direct relationship between oil prices and inflation emerged. The results of impulse-response analysis shows that the responses of macro-economic variables to oil price shocks become stable only after one year.

Suggested Citation

  • Aktas, Erkan & Özenç, Çiğdem & Arıca, Feyza, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Prices in Turkey on Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 8658, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8658
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8658/1/MPRA_paper_8658.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    2. Faria, João Ricardo & Mollick, André Varella & Albuquerque, Pedro H. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2009. "The effect of oil price on China's exports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 793-805, December.
    3. Surender Kumar, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Empirical Evidence for India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(1), pages 15-37.
    4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    5. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2008. "The impact of oil price shocks: Evidence from the industries of six OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3095-3108, November.
    6. Jayaraman, T.K. & Choong, Chee-Keong, 2009. "Growth and oil price: A study of causal relationships in small Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2182-2189, June.
    7. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    8. Ewing, Bradley T. & Thompson, Mark A., 2007. "Dynamic cyclical comovements of oil prices with industrial production, consumer prices, unemployment, and stock prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5535-5540, November.
    9. Faria, João Ricardo & Mollick, André Varella & Albuquerque, Pedro H. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2009. "The effect of oil price on China's exports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 793-805, December.
    10. Lorde, Troy & Jackman, Mahalia & Thomas, Chrystol, 2009. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on a small open oil-producing country: The case of Trinidad and Tobago," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2708-2716, July.
    11. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
    12. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2009. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 134-151, January.
    13. repec:bla:scandj:v:83:y:1981:i:2:p:269-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-484, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jesser PALADINES, 2017. "Oil Price and Real GDP Growth of Ecuador: A Vector Autoregressive Approach," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 71-78, March.
    2. Nagmi M. Moftah Aimer, 2016. "The Effects of Fluctuations of Oil Price on Economic Growth of Libya," Energy Economics Letters, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(2), pages 17-29, December.
    3. Jesser Roberto Paladines Amaiquema, 2017. "Is Ecuador Real Gross Domestic Product per Capita and Other Macroeconomic Variables Cointegrated? An Autoregressive Distribution Lag Bound Test Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 9-13.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Merve Arslan & Hamide Arslan & Ismail Erkan Celik, 2022. "Econometric Analysis of the Effect of Oil Price Volatility on Country Economic Indicators: The Case of Turkey," Muhasebe Enstitusu Dergisi - Journal of Accounting Institute, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 0(67), pages 71-81, July.
    2. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2011. "Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices," Documentos de Trabajo 406, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    3. Tuzova, Yelena & Qayum, Faryal, 2016. "Global oil glut and sanctions: The impact on Putin’s Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 140-151.
    4. Du, Limin & Yanan, He & Wei, Chu, 2010. "The relationship between oil price shocks and China's macro-economy: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4142-4151, August.
    5. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2011. "Oil revenue shocks and government spending behavior in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1055-1069.
    6. Wei, Yanfeng & Guo, Xiaoying, 2016. "An empirical analysis of the relationship between oil prices and the Chinese macro-economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 88-100.
    7. Zulfigarov, Farid & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2020. "The impact of oil price changes on selected macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    8. Alom, Fardous, 2011. "Economic Effects of Oil and Food Price Shocks in Asia and Pacific Countries: An Application of SVAR Model," 2011 Conference, August 25-26, 2011, Nelson, New Zealand 115346, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    9. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2012. "Does the Iranian oil supply matter for the oil prices?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201232, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 118-125.
    13. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 491-511.
    14. Farid Zulfigarov & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2019. "Azerbaijan and its Oil Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Research Papers in Economics 2019-11, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    15. Peersman, Gert & Van Robays, Ine, 2012. "Cross-country differences in the effects of oil shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1532-1547.
    16. Elsiddig Rahma & Noel Perera & Kian Tan, 2016. "Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Sudan s Government Budget," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 243-248.
    17. Marc Gronwald, 2012. "Oil and the U.S. Macroeconomy: A Reinvestigation Using Rolling Impulse Responses," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    18. Simeon Oludiran Akinleye & Stephen Ekpo, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(4, Cierre), pages 565-624.
    19. Aastveit, Knut Are, 2014. "Oil price shocks in a data-rich environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 268-279.
    20. Heidorn, Thomas & Van Huellen, Sophie & Ruehl, C. & Woebbeking, F., 2017. "The long- and short-run impact of oil price changes on major global economies," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 225, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; VAR; Macroeconomics; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8658. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.