IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/85074.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation and Fertility in a Schumpeterian Growth Model: Theory and Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • He, Qichun

Abstract

This study explores a novel channel for monetary policy to impact growth and welfare---through fertility choice. In a scale-invariant Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous fertility and a cash-in-advance constraint on consumption, we find a positive effect of an increase in the nominal interest rate on fertility. The increase in fertility decreases labor supplied to production and R&D, which in turn decreases long-run growth. Calibration shows that long-run growth increases 0.12% by reducing the nominal interest rate from 9.6% to 0%, and the welfare gain is equivalent to a permanent increase in consumption of 3.14%. As an empirical test, we build panel data for 12 advanced countries during 2000--2014. We use the degree of central bank independence and money growth as the instruments for inflation. We find that the effect of inflation on population growth is positive and significant in instrumental variables estimation. Our results remain robust to using birth rate or fertility rate as the dependent variable. An increase in annual inflation of 1 percentage point would bring an increase of 0.06 percentage point in the annual growth of the total population. Our empirical findings provide support for our theory.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Qichun, 2018. "Inflation and Fertility in a Schumpeterian Growth Model: Theory and Evidence," MPRA Paper 85074, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:85074
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/85074/1/MPRA_paper_85074.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    2. Mark R. Rosenzweig & Junsen Zhang, 2009. "Do Population Control Policies Induce More Human Capital Investment? Twins, Birth Weight and China's "One-Child" Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(3), pages 1149-1174.
    3. Donald W.K. Andrews & James H. Stock, 2005. "Inference with Weak Instruments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1530, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. N. Nergiz Dincer & Barry Eichengreen, 2014. "Central Bank Transparency and Independence: Updates and New Measures," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 189-259, March.
    5. Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang & Yi Zhu, 2008. "The quantity-Quality trade-Off of children In a developing country: Identification using chinese twins," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(1), pages 223-243, February.
    6. Alberto Alesina, 1988. "Macroeconomics and Politics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 13-62, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Angus Chu & Guido Cozzi & Chih-Hsing Liao, 2013. "Endogenous fertility and human capital in a Schumpeterian growth model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 181-202, January.
    8. Angus C. Chu & Guido Cozzi & Haichao Fang & Yuichi Furukawa & Chih-Hsing Liao, 2019. "Innovation and Inequality in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model with Heterogeneous Households and Firms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 141-164, October.
    9. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    10. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012634, December.
    11. Marquis, Milton H & Reffett, Kevin L, 1994. "New Technology Spillovers into the Payment System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1123-1138, September.
    12. Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-162, May.
    13. Chu, Angus C. & Cozzi, Guido & Lai, Ching-Chong & Liao, Chih-Hsing, 2015. "Inflation, R&D and growth in an open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 360-374.
    14. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(3), pages 353-398, September.
    15. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    16. Angus C. Chu & Yuichi Furukawa & Lei Ji, 2016. "Patents, R&D subsidies, and endogenous market structure in a schumpeterian economy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(3), pages 809-825, January.
    17. Christopher Laincz & Pietro Peretto, 2006. "Scale effects in endogenous growth theory: an error of aggregation not specification," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 263-288, September.
    18. Nishimura, Kazuo & Zhang, Junsen, 1992. "Pay-as-you-go public pensions with endogenous fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 239-258, July.
    19. He, Qichun & Zou, Heng-fu, 2016. "Does inflation cause growth in the reform-era China? Theory and evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 470-484.
    20. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2008. "Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(4), pages 1143-1179.
    21. Holger Strulik & Jacob Weisdorf, 2008. "Population, food, and knowledge: a simple unified growth theory," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 195-216, September.
    22. Chu, Angus C. & Cozzi, Guido & Furukawa, Yuichi & Liao, Chih-Hsing, 2017. "Inflation and economic growth in a Schumpeterian model with endogenous entry of heterogeneous firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 392-409.
    23. Chen, Hung-Ju, 2018. "Innovation and imitation in a product-cycle model with FDI and cash-in-advance constraints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 91-114.
    24. James B. Davies & Junsen Zhang, 1997. "The effects of gender control on fertility and children`s consumption," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 67-85.
    25. Qichun He, 2015. "A Monetary Variety-Expanding Growth Model with a Cash-in-Advance Constraint on Manufacturing," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 571-579.
    26. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Chu, Angus C. & Cozzi, Guido & Lai, Ching-Chong & Liao, Chih-Hsing, 2013. "Monetary Policy, R&D and Economic Growth in an Open Economy," MPRA Paper 47364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. repec:wly:soecon:v:82:3:y:2016:p:809-825 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Angus C. Chu & Guido Cozzi & Haichao Fang & Yuichi Furukawa & Chih-Hsing Liao, 2019. "Innovation and Inequality in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model with Heterogeneous Households and Firms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 141-164, October.
    30. Li, Hongbin & Yi, Junjian & Zhang, Junsen, 2015. "Fertility, Household Structure, and Parental Labor Supply: Evidence from Rural China," IZA Discussion Papers 9342, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    31. Angus C. Chu & Guido Cozzi, 2014. "R&D And Economic Growth In A Cash‐In‐Advance Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 507-524, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. He, Qichun, 2018. "Inflation and innovation with a cash-in-advance constraint on human capital accumulation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 14-18.
    2. Qichun He, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 15(4), pages 626-641, December.
    3. Song, Wei & Yang, Yibai, 2024. "Monetary policy in a Schumpeterian economy with endogenous fertility and human capital accumulation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Lu, You-Xun, 2022. "Interactive effects of monetary policy and patent protection: The role of endogenous innovation size," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. Angus C. Chu & Guido Cozzi & Haichao Fang & Yuichi Furukawa & Chih-Hsing Liao, 2019. "Innovation and Inequality in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model with Heterogeneous Households and Firms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 141-164, October.
    6. Angus C. Chu & Guido Cozzi & Haichao Fan & Yuichi Furukawa, 2021. "Inflation, Unemployment, and Economic Growth in a Schumpeterian Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(3), pages 874-909, July.
    7. He, Qichun, 2023. "The inverted-U effect of inflation on growth: Cross-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Angus C. Chu, 2022. "Inflation, innovation, and growth: A survey," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 863-878, July.
    9. Jemiluyi Olufunmilayo & Jeke Leward, 2023. "A Comparative Assessment of the Urbanization – Fertility Nexus in Most Urbanized Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 26(1), pages 165-183.
    10. He, Qichun & Zhang, Zhixiang, 2019. "Inflation and Growth: An Inverted-U Relationship," MPRA Paper 97092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. He, Qichun, 2018. "Inflation and health in a Schumpeterian growth model: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 159-168.
    12. Angus C. Chu & Guido Cozzi & Haichao Fang & Yuichi Furukawa & Chih-Hsing Liao, 2019. "Innovation and Inequality in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model with Heterogeneous Households and Firms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 141-164, October.
    13. He, Qichun, 2018. "Health and Innovation in a Monetary Schumpeterian Growth Model," MPRA Paper 85218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Deng, Zhongqi & Song, Shunfeng & Jiang, Nan & Pang, Ruizhi, 2023. "Sustainable development in China? A nonparametric decomposition of economic growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    15. Lu, You-Xun & Chen, Shi-kuan & Lai, Ching-chong, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in a Schumpeterian Model with Incumbents and Entrants," MPRA Paper 112177, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. He, Qichun, 2018. "Inflation and fertility in a Schumpeterian growth model: Theory and evidence1," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 113-126.
    2. He, Qichun & Zhang, Zhixiang, 2019. "Inflation and Growth: An Inverted-U Relationship," MPRA Paper 97092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Qichun He & Heng-fu Zou, 2024. "Central Bank Independence and Inflation: Schumpeterian Theory and Evidence," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 25(2), pages 463-500, November.
    4. He, Qichun, 2018. "Inflation and health in a Schumpeterian growth model: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 159-168.
    5. He, Qichun, 2023. "The inverted-U effect of inflation on growth: Cross-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    6. He, Qichun, 2018. "Inflation and innovation with a cash-in-advance constraint on human capital accumulation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 14-18.
    7. Angus C. Chu, 2022. "Inflation, innovation, and growth: A survey," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 863-878, July.
    8. He, Qichun, 2018. "Health and Innovation in a Monetary Schumpeterian Growth Model," MPRA Paper 85218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Song, Wei & Yang, Yibai, 2024. "Monetary policy in a Schumpeterian economy with endogenous fertility and human capital accumulation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. He, Qichun & Wang, Xilin, 2020. "Money, Human Capital and Endogenous Market Structure in a Schumpeterian Economy," MPRA Paper 104609, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Lu, You-Xun, 2022. "Interactive effects of monetary policy and patent protection: The role of endogenous innovation size," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    12. Angus C. Chu & Guido Cozzi & Haichao Fang & Yuichi Furukawa & Chih-Hsing Liao, 2019. "Innovation and Inequality in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model with Heterogeneous Households and Firms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 141-164, October.
    13. Zheng, Zhijie & Huang, Chien-Yu & Wan, Xi, 2020. "Human Capital and Income Inequality in a Monetary Schumpeterian Growth Model," MPRA Paper 101912, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Zheng, Zhijie & Wan, Xi & Huang, Chien-Yu, 2023. "Inflation and income inequality in a Schumpeterian economy with heterogeneous wealth and skills," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    15. Zheng, Zhijie & Huang, Chien-Yu & Yang, Yibai, 2021. "Inflation And Growth: A Non-Monotonic Relationship In An Innovation-Driven Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1199-1226, July.
    16. Arawatari, Ryo & Hori, Takeo & Mino, Kazuo, 2018. "On the nonlinear relationship between inflation and growth: A theoretical exposition," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 79-93.
    17. Qichun He, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 15(4), pages 626-641, December.
    18. Lu, You-Xun & Chen, Shi-kuan & Lai, Ching-chong, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in a Schumpeterian Model with Incumbents and Entrants," MPRA Paper 112177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Chu, Angus C. & Ning, Lei & Zhu, Dongming, 2019. "Human Capital And Innovation In A Monetary Schumpeterian Growth Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1875-1894, July.
    20. Gil, Pedro Mazeda & Iglésias, Gustavo & Guimarães, Luís, 2023. "Endogenous growth and monetary policy: How do interest-rate feedback rules shape nominal and real transitional dynamics?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; fertility; economic growth; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:85074. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.