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Inflation and Fertility in a Schumpeterian Growth Model: Theory and Evidence

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  • He, Qichun

Abstract

This study explores a novel channel for monetary policy to impact growth and welfare---through fertility choice. In a scale-invariant Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous fertility and a cash-in-advance constraint on consumption, we find a positive effect of an increase in the nominal interest rate on fertility. The increase in fertility decreases labor supplied to production and R&D, which in turn decreases long-run growth. Calibration shows that long-run growth increases 0.12% by reducing the nominal interest rate from 9.6% to 0%, and the welfare gain is equivalent to a permanent increase in consumption of 3.14%. As an empirical test, we build panel data for 12 advanced countries during 2000--2014. We use the degree of central bank independence and money growth as the instruments for inflation. We find that the effect of inflation on population growth is positive and significant in instrumental variables estimation. Our results remain robust to using birth rate or fertility rate as the dependent variable. An increase in annual inflation of 1 percentage point would bring an increase of 0.06 percentage point in the annual growth of the total population. Our empirical findings provide support for our theory.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Qichun, 2018. "Inflation and Fertility in a Schumpeterian Growth Model: Theory and Evidence," MPRA Paper 85074, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:85074
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    Cited by:

    1. He, Qichun, 2018. "Inflation and innovation with a cash-in-advance constraint on human capital accumulation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 14-18.
    2. Qichun He, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 15(4), pages 626-641, December.
    3. Song, Wei & Yang, Yibai, 2024. "Monetary policy in a Schumpeterian economy with endogenous fertility and human capital accumulation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Lu, You-Xun, 2022. "Interactive effects of monetary policy and patent protection: The role of endogenous innovation size," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. Angus C. Chu & Guido Cozzi & Haichao Fang & Yuichi Furukawa & Chih-Hsing Liao, 2019. "Innovation and Inequality in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model with Heterogeneous Households and Firms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 141-164, October.
    6. Angus C. Chu & Guido Cozzi & Haichao Fan & Yuichi Furukawa, 2021. "Inflation, Unemployment, and Economic Growth in a Schumpeterian Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(3), pages 874-909, July.
    7. He, Qichun, 2023. "The inverted-U effect of inflation on growth: Cross-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Angus C. Chu, 2022. "Inflation, innovation, and growth: A survey," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 863-878, July.
    9. Jemiluyi Olufunmilayo & Jeke Leward, 2023. "A Comparative Assessment of the Urbanization – Fertility Nexus in Most Urbanized Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 26(1), pages 165-183.
    10. He, Qichun & Zhang, Zhixiang, 2019. "Inflation and Growth: An Inverted-U Relationship," MPRA Paper 97092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. He, Qichun, 2018. "Inflation and health in a Schumpeterian growth model: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 159-168.
    12. Angus C. Chu & Guido Cozzi & Haichao Fang & Yuichi Furukawa & Chih-Hsing Liao, 2019. "Innovation and Inequality in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model with Heterogeneous Households and Firms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 141-164, October.
    13. He, Qichun, 2018. "Health and Innovation in a Monetary Schumpeterian Growth Model," MPRA Paper 85218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Deng, Zhongqi & Song, Shunfeng & Jiang, Nan & Pang, Ruizhi, 2023. "Sustainable development in China? A nonparametric decomposition of economic growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    15. Lu, You-Xun & Chen, Shi-kuan & Lai, Ching-chong, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in a Schumpeterian Model with Incumbents and Entrants," MPRA Paper 112177, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; fertility; economic growth; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

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