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The Arab Spring was predictable in 2007: Empirics of Proof

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  • Asongu, Simplice
  • Nwachukwu, Jacinta

Abstract

We model core demands for better governance (political, economic and institutional), more employment and less consumer price inflation using a methodological innovation on the complete elimination of cross-country differences in signals susceptible of sparking social revolts. The empirical evidence based on 14 MENA countries show that the Arab Spring was predictable in 2007 to occur between January 2011 and April 2012. While the findings predict the wave of cross-country revolutions with almost mathematical precision, caveats and cautions are discussed for the scholar to understand the expositional dimensions of the empirics.

Suggested Citation

  • Asongu, Simplice & Nwachukwu, Jacinta, 2017. "The Arab Spring was predictable in 2007: Empirics of Proof," MPRA Paper 85055, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:85055
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arab Spring; Political Instability; Timing; Economic Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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