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The Arab Spring was predictable in 2007: Empirics of Proof

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  • Asongu, Simplice
  • Nwachukwu, Jacinta

Abstract

We model core demands for better governance (political, economic and institutional), more employment and less consumer price inflation using a methodological innovation on the complete elimination of cross-country differences in signals susceptible of sparking social revolts. The empirical evidence based on 14 MENA countries show that the Arab Spring was predictable in 2007 to occur between January 2011 and April 2012. While the findings predict the wave of cross-country revolutions with almost mathematical precision, caveats and cautions are discussed for the scholar to understand the expositional dimensions of the empirics.

Suggested Citation

  • Asongu, Simplice & Nwachukwu, Jacinta, 2017. "The Arab Spring was predictable in 2007: Empirics of Proof," MPRA Paper 85055, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:85055
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    1. John Ssozi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2016. "The Comparative Economics of Catch-up in Output per Worker, Total Factor Productivity and Technological Gain in Sub-Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 215-228, June.
    2. Simplice A. Asongu, 2014. "Fighting African Capital Flight: Empirics on Benchmarking Policy Harmonization," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 11(1), pages 93-122, June.
    3. Antonio R Andres & Simplice A Asongu, 2013. "Global dynamic timelines for IPRs harmonization against software piracy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 874-880.
    4. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Mishra, Sagarika & Narayan, Seema, 2011. "Do market capitalization and stocks traded converge? New global evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2771-2781, October.
    5. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco Jose, 2006. "Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1379-1389, August.
    6. Simplice A Asongu, 2013. "Modeling the future of knowledge economy: evidence from SSA and MENA countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 612-624.
    7. Simplice Asongu, 2013. "Harmonizing IPRs on Software Piracy: Empirics of Trajectories in Africa," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 118(1), pages 45-60, November.
    8. Antonio Rodríguez Andrés & Simplice Asongu, 2016. "Global trajectories, dynamics, and tendencies of business software piracy," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(5), pages 780-800, October.
    9. Bruno, Giuseppe & De Bonis, Riccardo & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2012. "Do financial systems converge? New evidence from financial assets in OECD countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-155.
    10. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2016. "Revolution empirics: predicting the Arab Spring," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 439-482, September.
    11. Basil Jones, 2002. "Economic Integration and Convergence of Per Capita Income in West Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 14(1), pages 18-47.
    12. Simplice A. Asongu, 2013. "African Stock Market Performance Dynamics: A Multidimensional Convergence Assessment," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 186-201, December.
    13. Fung, Michael K., 2009. "Financial development and economic growth: Convergence or divergence?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 56-67, February.
    14. Asongu, Simplice A. & Tchamyou, Vanessa S. & Minkoua N., Jules R. & Asongu, Ndemaze & Tchamyou, Nina P., 2018. "Fighting terrorism in Africa: Benchmarking policy harmonization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 1931-1957.
    15. David Kelsey & Sara le Roux, 2018. "Strategic ambiguity and decision-making: an experimental study," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(3), pages 387-404, May.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arab Spring; Political Instability; Timing; Economic Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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