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Shale and the US Economy: Three Counterfactuals

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  • Arora, Vipin

Abstract

I use three different—and simple—counterfactuals to approximate the real GDP and employment effects of US oil and gas production from shale over the 2011 to 2015 period. Real GDP growth would have been 0.7 to 0.2 percentage points lower on average each year over that period without such increases; employment growth 0.5 to 0.1 percentage points lower.

Suggested Citation

  • Arora, Vipin, 2017. "Shale and the US Economy: Three Counterfactuals," MPRA Paper 79672, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79672
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79672/1/MPRA_paper_79672.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles F. Mason & Lucija A. Muehlenbachs & Sheila M. Olmstead, 2015. "The Economics of Shale Gas Development," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 269-289, October.
    2. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "The Economic and Budgetary Effects of Producing Oil and Natural Gas From Shale," Reports 49815, Congressional Budget Office.
    3. Catherine Hausman & Ryan Kellogg, 2015. "Welfare and Distributional Implications of Shale Gas," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 71-139.
    4. Arora Vipin, 2014. "Aggregate impacts of recent US natural gas trends," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 419-443, January.
    5. James Feyrer & Erin T. Mansur & Bruce Sacerdote, 2017. "Geographic Dispersion of Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Fracking Revolution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1313-1334, April.
    6. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "The Economic and Budgetary Effects of Producing Oil and Natural Gas From Shale," Reports 49815, Congressional Budget Office.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic activity; shale; oil and gas; counterfactual;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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