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The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: New Evidence and Implications

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  • Bosupeng, Mpho

Abstract

Previous studies on economic growth have shown that countries that relied on exports to propel their economies have been successful in achieving robust economic growth. This study considers Botswana’s mineral exports production from 2003Q1 to 2012Q4 and relates each export commodity with the GDP. This study applies the Johansen cointegration test and the Granger causality test to determine the applicability of the export-led growth hypothesis for the Botswana economy. The cointegration test shows that there is long run comovement between GDP and four of Botswana’s mineral exports namely: matte; diamonds; copper; nickel and soda ash. In addition, the Granger causality test shows that Botswana’s economy propels exports production.From these results, the study nullifies the export-led growth hypothesis and postulates that the Botswana economy rather follows the growth-driven exports hypothesis (GDE). The study further postulates recommendations and also potential areas of research.

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  • Bosupeng, Mpho, 2015. "The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: New Evidence and Implications," MPRA Paper 77917, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:77917
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    2. Arteaga, Julio César & Cardozo, Mónica Liseth & Diniz, Márcia Jucá T., 2020. "Exports to China and economic growth in Latin America, unequal effects within the region," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-17.
    3. Huawei, Tian, 2022. "Does gross domestic product, inflation, total investment, and exchanges rate matter in natural resources commodity prices volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    export-led growth; growth-driven exports; mineral exports.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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