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Türkiye'de bütçe açıklarının makro ekonomik sonuçları
[The macroeconomic effects of budget deficits in Turkey]

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  • Bilgili, Faik

Abstract

This paper observes if budget deficit has significant impact on interest rates, exchange rates, and, price level through (a) theoretical discussions, and, (b) relevant statistical estimations by regression models and Granger causality models. The paper (i) reaches the regression output depicting that budget deficit has just significant influence on exchange rate for the annual period 1970-1997, (ii) reveals Granger causality from budget deficit to interest rates and price level for the annual period 1970-1997, and, (iii) explores, on the other hand, that neither regression parameters nor Granger Causality parameters had statistical significance on interest rates, exchange rates and price level in Turkey for the monthly period 1993:1-1998:7.

Suggested Citation

  • Bilgili, Faik, 1999. "Türkiye'de bütçe açıklarının makro ekonomik sonuçları [The macroeconomic effects of budget deficits in Turkey]," MPRA Paper 75639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:75639
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/75639/1/MPRA_paper_75639.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J., 1987. "Government spending, interest rates, prices, and budget deficits in the United Kingdom, 1701-1918," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 221-247, September.
    2. Bilgili, Faik & Bilgili, Emine, 1998. "Bütçe açığının cari işlemler üzerindeki etkileri: Teori ve uygulama [The effects of budget deficit on current account balance: Theory and empirical evidence]," MPRA Paper 80866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    4. Bilgili, Faik, 1997. "Testing the Ricardian equivalence theorem in the framework of the permanent income hypothesis," MPRA Paper 75542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bilgili, Faik, 1999. "Yeni Klasik kurama göre bütçe politikalarının değerlendirilmesi [An evaluation of New Classical arguments on budget policies]," MPRA Paper 80771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Faik Bilgili, 2018. "Piyasa Ekonomisine Geçiþ Süreci ve Sonrasýnda Türkiye'de GINI Katsayýlarýnýn Analizi: Alternatif GINI Formülü Yaklaþýmý," Isletme ve Iktisat Calismalari Dergisi, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 36-58.
    3. Bilgili, Faik, 2017. "Piyasa ekonomisine geçiş süreci ve sonrasında Türkiye'de GINI katsayılarının analizi: Alternatif GINI formülü yaklaşımı [During and after the process of transition to market economy, an analysis of," MPRA Paper 81043, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget deficit; fiscal policy; crowding-out; Turkish economy; cointegration; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • B30 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General

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