IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/72589.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nonlinearity between RER and Trade Balance: A Case Study of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Qayyum, Abdul
  • Nazir, Sidra
  • Jawad, Muhammad

Abstract

Exchange rate is an important factor to bring change in trade balance of any country. In this study the true relationship that is nonlinear; have been examined empirically between trade balance and real exchange rate for Pakistan vs USA. By using monthly data (1980m1 to 2014m2) linear and nonlinear models are estimated by using Johansen cointegration technique (1988). The negative sign of RER2 confirms the nonlinear relationship in case of bilateral trade between these two countries. Existence J-curve in case of Pakistan has been confirmed by long run and short run results, as in long run exchange rate improves the trade balance but in short run it depreciated Hussain and Bashir (2013) and Magee (1973). Finally the nonlinear model showed better forecast performance examined by RMSE and MAE.

Suggested Citation

  • Qayyum, Abdul & Nazir, Sidra & Jawad, Muhammad, 2016. "Nonlinearity between RER and Trade Balance: A Case Study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72589
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/72589/1/MPRA_paper_72589.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mon-Li Lin & Tze-Wei Fu, 2015. "Nonlinear Effect of Exchange Rates on Trade Balance: A Recommendation for Emerging Countries’ Exchange Rate Policy," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 1(6), pages 90-96, 09-2015.
    2. Stephen P. Magee, 1973. "Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 303-325.
    3. Chinn, Menzie David, 1991. "Some linear and nonlinear thoughts on exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 214-230, June.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Gürtler, 2019. "Dynamic analysis of trade balance behavior in a small open economy: the J-curve phenomenon and the Czech economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 469-497, February.
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:21:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bilgin, Cevat, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Exports: A Sectoral Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis for Turkey," MPRA Paper 101316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Alper YILMAZ, 2024. "Bilateral J-Curve Between Türkiye and Its Major Non-EU Trading Partners: Evidence from Both Linear and Non-Linear Approach," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 32(60).
    5. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2006. "The J Curve: China Versus Her Trading Partners," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 323-343, October.
    6. Jian Zhou, 2010. "Testing for Cointegration between House Prices and Economic Fundamentals," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 599-632, Winter.
    7. Gokhan H. Akay & Atilla Cifter & Ozdemir Teke, 2017. "Turkish tourism, exchange rates and income," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 66-77, February.
    8. Winston T. Lin, 2005. "Currency forecasting based on an error components-seemingly unrelated nonlinear regression model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 593-605.
    9. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
    10. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Halicioglu, Ferda, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on Turkish bilateral trade balances," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 279-296.
    11. Salah A. Nusair, 2017. "The J-Curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1-27, January.
    12. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Barquet, Andrea & Risso, Wiston Adrián, 2009. "Causality between Economic Growth and Tourism Expansion: Empirical Evidence from Trentino - Alto Adige," MPRA Paper 25316, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Dec 2009.
    13. Safet KURTOVIC & Blerim HALILI & Nehat MAXHUNI, 2017. "Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Her Trading Partner from Southeast Europe," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 75-85, March.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Nazif Durmaz, 2020. "Asymmetric cointegration and the J-curve: evidence from commodity trade between Turkey and EU," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 757-792, November.
    15. Debabrata Bagchi & Georgios E. Chortareas & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "The Real Exchange Rate in Small, Open, Developed Economies: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(248), pages 76-88, March.
    16. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen & HALICIOGLU, Ferda & GHODSI, Seyed Hesam, 2016. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on British Bilateral Trade Balances," MPRA Paper 73477, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Edgar J Sanchez Carrera & W. Adrian Risso & Juan Gabriel Brida, 2008. "Tourism's Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(21), pages 1-8.
    18. Czujack, Corinna & Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Ginsburgh, Victor, 1995. "On long-run price comovements between paintings and prints," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 269, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    19. Law, Siong Hook & Tan, Hui & baharumshah, ahmad, 1999. "Financial Liberalization in ASEAN and the Fisher Hypothesis," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 33, pages 65-86.
    20. Bloch, Harry & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: Prospects for fuel substitution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 104-115.
    21. Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allan W. Gregory, 2009. "Canadian city housing prices and urban market segmentation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 1132-1149, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate; Trade Balance; Non-Linear Model; Cointegration; J-Curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72589. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.