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Determining Statistical Pattern on the Drug-Related Killing in Philippines Using ARIMA and Poisson Techniques

Author

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  • Tamayo, Adrian

Abstract

A univariate time series technique was conducted to determine statistical pattern on killings of drug suspects in Philippines from May 19 to July 7, 2016. The technique reveal a moving-average of order 2, MA(2) with a positive coefficient suggestive that value of outcome variable tend to increase, on the average, than the recent value of . This means that drug-related killings will tend to be higher than the most current rate; and killings is seen to increase as weekend comes. Poisson regression indicated an average of 13 deaths on a Sunday; only 2 on average on a Monday; odds of survival increases as well as weekend comes. Finally, the forecast model and the simulation are limited by the data used. Structure of the univariate series may change as additional data are added; this is also true for the forecasted average occurrence.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamayo, Adrian, 2016. "Determining Statistical Pattern on the Drug-Related Killing in Philippines Using ARIMA and Poisson Techniques," MPRA Paper 72518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72518
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-461, October.
    2. Harris, R. I. D., 1992. "Testing for unit roots using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test : Some issues relating to the size, power and the lag structure of the test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 381-386, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Madanlo, Lalaine & Murcia, John Vianne & Tamayo, Adrian, 2016. "Simultaneity of Crime Incidence in Mindanao," MPRA Paper 72648, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jul 2016.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    drug violence; influence; government;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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