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Use of maximum entropy in estimating production risks in crop farms

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  • Kevorchian, Cristian
  • Gavrilescu, Camelia

Abstract

The entropic value of the production risk is closely linked to the farmer’s aversion to this type of risk. Since risk aversion is difficult to quantify, it is preferable to use the MaxEnt model as a quantitative benchmark in assessing and covering the production risk through adequate financial resources. The classification of the Selyaninov index value as measure of the production risk based on the MaxEnt model utilization makes it possible to evaluate the production risk and the transfer decision to an adequate market implicitly. The authors’ previous research investigated the risk coverage through derivative financial instruments that diminish the farmer’s exposure to the production risk; the present paper adds to previous research by investigating an equally important issue: sizing the risk that is the object of coverage. Through the utilization of the stochastic methods in estimating the risk measure, a less rigid method is obtained that can be adapted and applied to the risk management processes in agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevorchian, Cristian & Gavrilescu, Camelia, 2015. "Use of maximum entropy in estimating production risks in crop farms," MPRA Paper 69377, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:69377
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/69377/1/MPRA_paper_69377.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. KEVORCHIAN, Cristian & GAVRILESCU, Camelia & HURDUZEU, Gheorghe, 2013. "Qualitative Risk Coverage In Agriculture Through Derivative Financial Instruments Based On Selyaninov Indices," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 17(3), pages 19-32.
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    1. Cristian KEVORCHIAN & Camelia GAVRILESCU & Gheorghe HURDUZEU, 2015. "An Approach Based On Big Data And Machine Learning For Optimizing The Management Of Agricultural Production Risks," Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 117-128.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Production risk; crop farms; Markov models; MaxEnt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets

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