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Una stima realistica dell’impatto economico dei visitatori dell’Expo 2015
[The economic impact of Expo 2015 visitors: a realistic estimate]

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  • Massiani, Jerome
  • Pizziali, Giorgia

Abstract

Many economic impact assessments of major events overestimate the benefits of such events because they do not consider the substitution effects. In reality, a more careful evaluation should consider only the spending that is additional to the area of investigation. In this paper, we focus on a recent event, Expo 2015, and consider a single impact item, the impact of visitors. We propose, in coherence with some methodological proposals made in various countries, to use a survey to distinguish the additional component of the visitors’ expenditure from the substitutive one. This allows to better measure the economic impact of Expo on Italy. The data show that almost all of the Italian visits substitute other presences in Italy, while just 50% of visits for foreigners are additional. Moreover, the number of visits of foreigners appears lower than forecasted. Putting together these elements, the additional expenditure generated by the Expo can be estimated up to 1 billion, or a little more in more optimistic estimates, likely to activate 1.3 billion euro of VA (2 billion in a more speculative case) to be compared to 4 or 4.3 billion estimated ex ante. This benefit, with that resulting from other impacts, should be compared with the cost of the event.

Suggested Citation

  • Massiani, Jerome & Pizziali, Giorgia, 2015. "Una stima realistica dell’impatto economico dei visitatori dell’Expo 2015 [The economic impact of Expo 2015 visitors: a realistic estimate]," MPRA Paper 68954, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:68954
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Baade & Robert Baumann & Victor Matheson, 2005. "Selling the Big Game: Estimating the Economic Impact of Mega-Events through Taxable Sales," Working Papers 0510, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    2. Robert A. Baade & Robert Baumann & Victor A. Matheson, 2008. "Selling the Game: Estimating the Economic Impact of Professional Sports through Taxable Sales," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(3), pages 794-810, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mega events; substitution effects; expo 2015;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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