IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/67142.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting Feds Fund Rate: 1982-2014

Author

Listed:
  • Mohajeryami, Saeed

Abstract

Federal funds rate in the US is the interest rate that the banks pay each other for lending funds overnight. Fed funds rate is an important benchmark in the economy because of its significant impact on many other financial indices. The target rate is determined by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Federal Reserve’s method of determining “reaction function” is subject to speculation for a long time. Taylor believed that the reaction function can be specified as a weighted average of deviations of inflation and unemployment from target values. But this model, even though worked for a long time, are under attack by new economists and like many old models are obsolete because of the various structural change in the society and economy. In this work, different models and different parameters are used to determine the reaction function. According to the results, VAR model gives the best FERMS (5.7%). Another interesting observation is that the inflation rate does not granger-cause Feds fund target rate which is not consistent with Taylor rule. On the other hand, the unemployment rate plays an important role in the Feds reaction function.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohajeryami, Saeed, 2015. "Forecasting Feds Fund Rate: 1982-2014," MPRA Paper 67142, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:67142
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/67142/1/MPRA_paper_67142.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Belongia, Michael & Hinich, Melvin, 2009. "The evolving role and definition of the federal funds rate in the conduct of U.S. monetary policy," MPRA Paper 18970, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2009.
    2. Katherine Femia & Steven Friedman & Brian P. Sack, 2013. "The effects of policy guidance on perceptions of the Fed’s reaction function," Staff Reports 652, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    4. James K. Galbraith & Olivier Giovannoni & Ann J. Russo, 2007. "The Fed's Real Reaction Function: Monetary Policy, Inflation, Unemployment, Inequality-and Presidential Politics," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_511, Levy Economics Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrea Boitani & Lorenzo Di Domenico & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2024. "Monetary policy and inequality: an heterogenous agents’ approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def133, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    2. Karen Davtyan, 2016. "“The Distributive Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies”," IREA Working Papers 201606, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2016.
    3. Davtyan, Karen, 2017. "The distributive effect of monetary policy: The top one percent makes the difference," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 106-118.
    4. Karen Davtyan, 2016. "“The Distributive effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies”," AQR Working Papers 201606, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Apr 2016.
    5. Kui-Wai Li, 2013. "The US monetary performance prior to the 2008 crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3450-3461, August.
    6. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
    7. Filippo Occhino, 2001. "Monetary Policy Shocks in an Economy with Segmented Markets," Departmental Working Papers 200108, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    8. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Kamberoglou, Nicos C. & Simigiannis, George T., 2001. "Is there a bank lending channel of monetary policy in Greece? Evidence from bank level data," Working Paper Series 104, European Central Bank.
    9. Sandra Eickmeier & Boris Hofmann & Andreas Worms, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Lending: Evidence for Germany and the Euro Area," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(2), pages 193-223, May.
    10. Francisco de Castro, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 913-924.
    11. Jamie Armour & Walter Engert & Ben Fung, 1996. "Overnight Rate Innovations as a measure of monetary Policy Shocks in Vector Autoregressions," Staff Working Papers 96-4, Bank of Canada.
    12. Lloyd, S. P., 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Interest Rate Channel: Signalling and Portfolio Rebalancing," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1735, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Agiakloglou, Christos & Gkouvakis, Michail, 2015. "Causal interrelations among market fundamentals: Evidence from the European Telecommunications sector," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 150-159.
    14. Xavier Ragot, 2005. "A theory of low inflation in a non Ricardian economy with credit constraints," PSE Working Papers halshs-00590788, HAL.
    15. Croushore, Dean & Evans, Charles L., 2006. "Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1135-1160, September.
    16. Peydró, José-Luis & Jasova, Martina & Mendicino, Caterina & Panetti, Ettore & Supera, Dominik, 2021. "Monetary Policy, Labor Income Redistribution and the Credit Channel: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee and Credit Registe," CEPR Discussion Papers 16549, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Chetan Dave & Scott J. Dressler & Lei Zhang, 2020. "Bank Lending, Monetary Policy Transmission, and Interest on Excess Reserves: a FAVAR Analysis," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 44, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    18. Jose A. Zabala & Maria A. Prats, 2020. "The unconventional monetary policy of the European Central Bank: Effectiveness and transmission analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 794-809, March.
    19. Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1997. "Asymétries financières et transmission de la politique monétaire en Europe," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 128(2), pages 41-60.
    20. Dickinson, David & Liu, Jia, 2007. "The real effects of monetary policy in China: An empirical analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 87-111.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Federal Funds Rate (FFR); Taylor rule; Federal Reserve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:67142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.