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The long-term decline of internal migration in Canada – Ontario as a case study

Author

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  • Basher, Syed A.
  • Fachin, Stefano

Abstract

Migration between the Canadian provinces generally followed a declining trend over the period 1971-2004. In this paper, taking Ontario a case study, we seek to explain these patterns using recent panel cointegration methods that are robust to cross-section dependence. Estimation of heterogenous models suggests that the determinants of migration vary across provinces. Overall, unemployment differential and income in the sending province appear to be the most important ones, with income and federal transfer differentials playing only a minor role.

Suggested Citation

  • Basher, Syed A. & Fachin, Stefano, 2008. "The long-term decline of internal migration in Canada – Ontario as a case study," MPRA Paper 6685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6685
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6685/1/MPRA_paper_6685.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    6. Moon, Hyungsik R., 1999. "A note on fully-modified estimation of seemingly unrelated regressions models with integrated regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 25-31, October.
    7. Ayat, Leila & Burridge, Peter, 2000. "Unit root tests in the presence of uncertainty about the non-stochastic trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 71-96, March.
    8. Thomas J. Courchene, 1970. "Interprovincial Migration and Economic Adjustment," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(4), pages 550-576, November.
    9. Kathleen Day & Stanley Winer, 2006. "Policy-induced internal migration: An empirical investigation of the Canadian case," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 13(5), pages 535-564, September.
    10. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    11. Shaw, R Paul, 1986. "Fiscal versus Traditional Market Variables in Canadian Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 648-666, June.
    12. Lars Osberg & Daniel V. Gordon & Zhengxi Lin, 1994. "Interregional Migration and Interindustry Labour Mobility in Canada: A Simultaneous Approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 58-80, February.
    13. Serge Coulombe & Kathleen M. Day, 1999. "Economic Growth and Regional Income Disparities in Canada and the Northern United States," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 25(2), pages 155-178, June.
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    15. Stefano Fachin, 2007. "Long-run trends in internal migrations in italy: a study in panel cointegration with dependent units," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 401-428.
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    18. Faini, Riccardo & Galli, Giampaolo & Gennari, Pietro & Rossi, Fulvio, 1997. "An empirical puzzle: Falling migration and growing unemployment differentials among Italian regions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 571-579, April.
    19. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1971_26n4_0779 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Laura Serlenga & Yongcheol Shin, 2021. "Gravity models of interprovincial migration flows in Canada with hierarchical multifactor structure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 365-390, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Internal migration; panel cointegration; bootstrap; Canada;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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