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Анализ Официальных И Альтернативных Оценок Инфляции
[Analysis of official and alternative estimates of inflation]

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  • Gluschenko, Konstantin

Abstract

The mass media frequently accuse official statistics of underestimating the inflation rate (consumer price index – CPI) by half to two-thirds. This paper analyzes potential sources of distortion of the official CPI, concluding that systematic errors causing underestimating are absent, and deliberate distortions are impossible. It also analyzes a number of alternative estimates of inflation and demonstrates that they are based either on the use of a consumer baskets that do not correspond to any real pattern of consumption and deliberately overstate rise in the price level, or on some indirect rationale that does not bear criticism. The only alternative estimate that can be taken seriously is greater than the 2005 official CPI by 2 percent points, that is, by 20% rather than by a factor of 2 to 3.

Suggested Citation

  • Gluschenko, Konstantin, 2015. "Анализ Официальных И Альтернативных Оценок Инфляции [Analysis of official and alternative estimates of inflation]," MPRA Paper 65670, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65670
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Бессонов Владимир Аркадьевич, 1998. "О Смещениях В Оценках Роста Российских Потребительских Цен," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 2(1), pages 31-66.
    2. Michael J. Boskin, 1998. "Consumer Prices, the Consumer Price Index, and the Cost of Living," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
    3. Gibson, John & Stillman, Steven & Le, Trinh, 2008. "CPI bias and real living standards in Russia during the transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 140-160, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer basket; consumer price index; CPI bias consumer basket; consumer price index; CPI bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • P22 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Prices

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