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Piketty is wrong

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Abstract

Piketty argues that there are long-run fundamental laws in capitalism that will necessarily concentrate the income in favor of the privileged 1 or 10% of the population. Piketty's two fundamental laws are really theoretical propositions that presume relative rigidity in the rate of return of capital and in the net savings rate. We show that such propositions are incompatible with seventy-five years of studies estimating the value of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor, and with the theoretical models of savings optimizing behavior. We argue that Piketty's laws are wrong and that they contradict the essence of market dynamics. Economic agents optimize and neither the rate of return of capital nor the net savings rate can remain relatively stable as Piketty supposes. Using empirical estimates of the long-run elasticity of substitution between capital and labor, and analyzing the relationship between the net savings rate and the real growth rate of the economy, we show that Piketty's forecast for the second half of the twenty-first century is inadequate. We propose alternative forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Obregon, Carlos, 2015. "Piketty is wrong," MPRA Paper 64593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:64593
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brent Neiman, 2014. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
    2. Thomas Piketty & Gabriel Zucman, 2014. "Capital is Back: Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries 1700–2010," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(3), pages 1255-1310.
    3. Ezra Oberfield & Devesh Raval, 2021. "Micro Data and Macro Technology," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 703-732, March.
    4. Robert S. Chirinko & Debdulal Mallick, 2014. "The Substitution Elasticity, Factor Shares, Long-Run Growth, and the Low-Frequency Panel Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 4895, CESifo.
    5. Charles I. Jones, 2005. "The Shape of Production Functions and the Direction of Technical Change," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 517-549.
    6. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/30nstiku669glbr66l6n7mc2oq is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Mallick, Debdulal, 2012. "The role of the elasticity of substitution in economic growth: A cross-country investigation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 682-694.
    8. Mallick, Debdulal, 2007. "The role of elasticity of substitution in economic growth: a cross-country test of the de La Grandville Hypothesis," Working Papers eco_2007_04, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2015. "The Rise and Decline of General Laws of Capitalism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    10. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01109372 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Piketty; Capitalism; Rate of return of capital; Savings rate; Economy growth; Elasticity between capital an labor;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D30 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - General
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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