IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/63417.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Dubas, Justin

Abstract

This paper explores how exchange rate misalignment may impact economic growth and development. Using PDOLS estimation to arrive at a measure of misalignment and employing standard growth regressions, a number of interesting results emerge. This paper finds that exchange rate misalignment has asymmetric effects. Specifically, overvaluation significantly hurts growth while undervaluation has the opposite effect (though statistically insignificant). Misalignment affects developed and developing countries differently in that developing countries are more sensitive to the growth effects of misalignment. Finally, the persistence of misalignment matters. Continuing misalignment of either variety are harmful for growth. This suggests that it is not a viable strategy for a country to intentionally undervalue a currency with the aim of improving the competitiveness of the export sector. In the end, it seems clear that a country needs to limit misalignment and maintain an exchange rate that is closely in line with the equilibrium rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Dubas, Justin, 2012. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 63417, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:63417
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/63417/1/SWER%20Paper.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    2. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," International Finance 9707001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Beck, Nathaniel & Katz, Jonathan N., 1995. "What To Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(3), pages 634-647, September.
    4. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1994. "Sources of economic growth," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-46, June.
    5. Mr. Ghiath Shabsigh & Ilker Domaç, 1999. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Growth: Evidence from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia," IMF Working Papers 1999/040, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Justin M. Dubas & Byung-Joo Lee & Nelson C. Mark, 2005. "Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth," NBER Working Papers 11272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
    8. Pick, Daniel H & Vollrath, Thomas L, 1994. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Agricultural Export Performance in Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(3), pages 555-571, April.
    9. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," NBER Working Papers 6174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Cottani, Joaquin A & Cavallo, Domingo F & Khan, M Shahbaz, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 61-76, October.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    12. Howard J. Shatz & David G. Tarr, 2017. "Exchange Rate Overvaluation and Trade Protection: Lessons from Experience," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Trade Policies for Development and Transition, chapter 5, pages 115-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Baban Hasnat, 1999. "Exchange rate misalignment and foreign direct investment," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(2), pages 235-235, June.
    14. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:cii:cepiei:2015-q1-141-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Slimani, Slah & Ben Allem, Khawla, 2018. "Determinants of real exchange rate misalignment: An empirical analysis for MENA region," MPRA Paper 91605, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ferdinand Owoundi & Jacques Landry Bikai, 2021. "On the neutrality of the exchange rate regime regarding real misalignments: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 327-345, July.
    4. Slimani, Slah & Ben allem, Khaoula, 2017. "Les déterminants du misalignement du taux de change réel : Analyse empirique pour le cas de la région MENA [Determinants of misalignment of the real exchange rate: An empirical analysis for the MEN," MPRA Paper 81247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Waqar Khalid & Javed Iqbal & Nosheen Nasir & Misbah Nosheen, 2024. "Do real exchange rate misalignments have threshold effects on economic growth? Asymmetric evidence from Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1-40, December.
    6. Khalid, Waqar & Civcir, Irfan & Özdeşer, Hüseyin & Iqbal, Javed, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of real exchange rate misalignment on growth dynamics in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1184-1203.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bagella, Michele & Becchetti, Leonardo & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2004. "The anticipated and concurring effects of the EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1053-1080.
    2. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2017. "Exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 949-974, November.
    3. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2015. "Exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system," Working Papers hal-04141421, HAL.
    4. Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 275-292.
    5. Mustapha Kamel Nabli & Marie-Ange Veganzones-Varoudakis, 2004. "How does exchange rate policy affect manufactured exports in MENA countries?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2209-2219.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2004_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Amor, Thouraya Hadj & Nouira, Ridha & Rault, Christophe & Sova, Anamaria Diana, 2023. "Real exchange rate misalignments and economic growth in Tunisia: New evidence from a threshold analysis of asymmetric adjustments," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 215-227.
    8. DEGUENONVO, Cédric, 2017. "Real exchange rate misalignment in Senegal: effect on growth," MPRA Paper 84338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bagella, Michele & Becchetti, Leonardo & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2004. "The anticipated and concurring effects of the EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1053-1080.
    10. repec:pra:mprapa:25503 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ronald MacDonald & Flávio Vieira, "undated". "A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth," Working Papers 2010_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    12. Ferdinand Owoundi & Jacques Landry Bikai, 2021. "On the neutrality of the exchange rate regime regarding real misalignments: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 327-345, July.
    13. Mbaye, Samba, 2012. "Currency Undervaluation and Growth: Is there a Productivity Channel?," MPRA Paper 44261, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Nouira, Ridha & Sekkat, Khalid, 2012. "Desperately seeking the positive impact of undervaluation on growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 537-552.
    15. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2018. "The real effect of currency misalignment on productivity growth: evidence from middle-income economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1637-1659, December.
    16. Jinzhao Chen, 2015. "Interprovincial Competitiveness and Economic Growth: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Data (1992–2008)," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 388-414, August.
    17. Florian Morvillier, 2019. "Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth?," Post-Print hal-02138677, HAL.
    18. Diallo, Ibrahima Amadou, 2011. "The effects of real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange volatility on exports," MPRA Paper 32387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Zouheir Abida, 2011. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study for the Maghreb Countries," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 45-61, July.
    20. Ali, Abdulkadir I. & Ajibola, Isaiah O. & Omotosho, Babatunde S. & Adetoba, Olutope O. & Adeleke, Abiola O., 2015. "Real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 98526, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Paulo Gala & Claudio R. Lucinda, 2006. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: Old and New Econometric Evidence," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 7(4), pages 165-187.
    22. Paulo Gala, 2005. "Exchange Rate Policies In Latin America And Asia, A Comparative Study," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 077, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate misalignment; overvaluation; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:63417. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.