Reële opties en de waarde van flexibiliteit bij natte infrastructuur[Real options analysis and the value of flexibility for (wet) infrastructure]

The basic idea of real options analysis is that flexibility has value. Increasing the flexibility of investmentprojects may therefore substantially increase their value. Ignoring the value of flexibility implies that erroneously investmentprojects without much flexibility may be preferred to more flexible alternatives. This paper investigates how real options analysis can be applied to the Dutch practice of water infrastructure, like the replacement and maintenance of current water construction works (e.g. bridges, dams and sluices) and the new Deltaprogram investments. The major conclusion is that identifying the various options for flexibility is usually more important than the estimation of their value. Estimation of the value is not necessary if sensitivity analysis indicates that a specific option for flexibility is a no regret solution that is in all circumstances preferrable to the other options. In case valuation is required to identify the best option, the best strategy is to start with simple and rough estimates using different sets of assumptions. Further refinement and improvement of these estimates could be counterproductive: considering the great uncertainty about future developments and the volatility of the value of options this will often not lead to much more accurate estimates. Furthermore, the increased complexity of the analysis will in practice often lead to substantial drawbacks in terms of communication and decision-making.