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Assessing bank's default probability using the ASRF model

Author

Listed:
  • Radkov, Petar
  • Minkova, Leda

Abstract

In this paper it is shown how a Vasicek-model approach and the assumptions in Basel 2 regulatory framework can be used to develop measures of the probability of banks' failure. The Basel 2 framework is based on a Vasicek-model approach. The estimation of the propose measure of bank probability of default could be made over the capital ratio from supervisory authorities (non-public information) or over the capital ratio from balance sheet data (public available information).

Suggested Citation

  • Radkov, Petar & Minkova, Leda, 2011. "Assessing bank's default probability using the ASRF model," MPRA Paper 60186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60186
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/60186/1/MPRA_paper_60186.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vasicek model; ASRF model; Basel 2; banks' probability of default;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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