IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/60082.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Industry Premiums and Systematic Risk under Terror: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmad, Tanveer
  • Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain
  • Rehman, Mobeen ur

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the impact of terrorism on Pakistani industry excess returns and systematic risk. Value weighted monthly returns for non-financial firms listed at Karachi Stock Exchange, from January 2001 to December 2010, are used for this study. A multiplicative term to study the change in systematic risk and a dummy variable to examine the industry wise impact on excess returns was introduced in the standard CAPM framework. Terrorism as a phenomenon, not an event in Pakistan, has a significant negative impact on the excess returns of twelve out of twenty seven industries. The evidence suggests a mixed effect of terrorism on the systematic risk of some industries. Transportation, Tobacco and Automobiles industries appear to be most affected sectors of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad, Tanveer & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Rehman, Mobeen ur, 2014. "Industry Premiums and Systematic Risk under Terror: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 60082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60082
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/60082/1/MPRA_paper_60082.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bradford, Bruce M. & Robison, H. David, 1997. "Abnormal returns, risk, and financial statement data: The case of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 193-204.
    2. Berrebi, Claude & Klor, Esteban F., 2008. "Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism? Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 279-301, August.
    3. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier, 2006. "Large shocks and the September 11th terrorist attacks on international stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 683-698, July.
    4. Marie-Anne Cam, 2008. "The Impact Of Terrorism On United States Industries," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 27(2), pages 115-134, June.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz & Malik, Muhammad Nasir & Wolters, Mark Edward, 2013. "An analysis of a causal relationship between economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 21-29.
    6. Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan, 2003. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Event Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 231-259, February.
    7. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2004. "Terrorism-induced structural shifts in financial risk: airline stocks in the aftermath of the September 11th terror attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 435-446, June.
    8. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2005. "The effects of war risk on US financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1769-1789, July.
    9. David A. Carter & Daniel A. Rogers & Betty J. Simkins, 2006. "Does Hedging Affect Firm Value? Evidence from the US Airline Industry," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 53-86, March.
    10. Patrick Lenain & Marcos Bonturi & Vincent Koen, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of Terrorism," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 334, OECD Publishing.
    11. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 77-102.
    12. Chan, Yue-cheong & John Wei, K. C., 1996. "Political risk and stock price volatility: The case of Hong Kong," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 259-275, July.
    13. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
    14. Chen, Andrew H. & Siems, Thomas F., 2004. "The effects of terrorism on global capital markets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 349-366, June.
    15. David A. Carter & Daniel A. Rogers & Betty J. Simkins, 2006. "Hedging and Value in the U.S. Airline Industry," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 18(4), pages 21-33, September.
    16. Cummins, J. David & Lewis, Christopher M. & Wei, Ran, 2006. "The market value impact of operational loss events for US banks and insurers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2605-2634, October.
    17. Arin, K. Peren & Ciferri, Davide & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2008. "The price of terror: The effects of terrorism on stock market returns and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 164-167, December.
    18. Ramiah, Vikash & Cam, Marie-Anne & Calabro, Michael & Maher, David & Ghafouri, Shahab, 2010. "Changes in equity returns and volatility across different Australian industries following the recent terrorist attacks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 64-76, January.
    19. Bruck, Tilman & Wickstrom, Bengt-Arne, 2004. "The economic consequences of terror: guest editors' introduction," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 293-300, June.
    20. Doherty, Neil A & Lamm-Tennant, Joan & Starks, Laura T, 2003. "Insuring September 11th: Market Recovery and Transparency," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 179-199, March-May.
    21. Akgiray, Vedat, 1989. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Time Series of Stock Returns: Evidence and Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 55-80, January.
    22. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    23. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    24. Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2008. "Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?: Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate," Working Papers 477-1, RAND Corporation.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Imtiaz Arif & Tahir Suleman, 2017. "Terrorism and Stock Market Linkages: An Empirical Study from a Front-line State," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 365-378, April.
    2. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part II)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1050, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Arif, Imtiaz & Suleman, Tahir, 2014. "Terrorism and Stock Market Linkages: An Empirical Study from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 58918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Shashitha Gimhani Jayakody, 2017. "The Impact of the Sri Lankan Civil War on the Stock Market Performances," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 394-402.
    5. Chaudhry, Naukhaiz & Roubaud, David & Akhter, Waheed & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Impact of terrorism on stock markets: Empirical evidence from the SAARC region," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 230-234.
    6. Gan Jin & Md Rafiul Karim & Günther G. Schulze, 2024. "The Stock Market Effects of Islamist versus Non-Islamist Terror," Discussion Paper Series 45 JEL Classification: D7, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Feb 2024.
    7. Corbet, Shaen & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Meegan, Andrew, 2018. "Long-term stock market volatility and the influence of terrorist attacks in Europe," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 118-131.
    8. Venancio Tauringana & Ishmael Tingbani & Godwin Okafor & Widin B. Sha'ven, 2021. "Terrorism and global business performance," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5636-5658, October.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    10. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    11. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Does Terrorism Affect the Stock‐Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
    12. Zopiatis, A. & Savva, C.S. & Lambertides, N. & McAleer, M.J., 2016. "Tourism Stocks in Times of Crises: an Econometric Investigation of Non-macro Factors," Econometric Institute Research Papers TI 2016-104/III, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    13. Kollias Christos & Papadamou Stephanos & Psarianos Iacovos, 2014. "Rogue State Behavior and Markets: the Financial Fallout of North Korean Nuclear Tests," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 267-292, April.
    14. Fatma Ben Moussa & Mariem Talbi, 2019. "Stock Market Reaction to Terrorist Attacks and Political Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Tunisian Stock Exchange," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 48-64.
    15. Anastasios Zopiatis & Christos S. Savva & Neophytos Lambertides & Michael McAleer, 2017. "Tourism Stocks in Times of Crises: An Econometric Investigation of Unexpected Non-macroeconomic Factors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-052/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Kim, Dongcheol & Kon, Stanley J., 1999. "Structural change and time dependence in models of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 283-308, September.
    17. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
    18. Irshad Hira & Taib Hasniza Mohd & Hussain Haroon & Hussain Rana Yassir, 2023. "Conventional and Islamic Equity Market Reaction Towards Terrorism: Evidence Based on Target Types, Location and Islamic Calendar Months," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 33(4), pages 70-116, December.
    19. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014. "Large shocks in the volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index: 1928–2013," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    20. Iatridis, George, 2012. "Terrorist attacks and company financial numbers: Evidence on earnings management and value relevance from Madrid, London and Istanbul," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 204-220.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorism; Equity market; Systematic risk; Pakistan.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60082. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.