IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/58946.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Volatility and Correlations of Stock Returns of Some Crisis-Hit Countries: US, Greece, Thailand and Malaysia: Evidence from MGARCH-DCC applications

Author

Listed:
  • Masih, Mansur
  • Majid, Hamdan Abdul

Abstract

This paper investigates the volatility and correlations of stock returns of some crisis-hit countries such as, US, Greece, Thailand and Malaysia during the major global financial crises since 1992. The paper makes an attempt to address the following two issues: Firstly, to measure the extent of volatility of the stock indices under study and also the correlation of the Malaysian index with the other country indices. Secondly, given the correlations, how best can a normal investor harness them to ensure maximum return in the short and the long run with a particular reference to the correlation between the Malaysian index and other country indices. The MGARCH-DCC approach is employed for the analysis. The findings tend to indicate that the investors’ behaviour converges and correlations are significantly higher across the two Asian countries in the sample. The level of volatilities of the indices’ return of all the four markets has increased significantly for the period under study. The level and magnitude of volatilities and correlations is consistently high between Malaysia and Thailand market (lowest of 0.02 in 1993 to highest of 0.65 in 1998) followed by US and Greece markets. Greece seems to be the most volatile market followed by Malaysia, US and Thailand (except for the period between 1993 and 1998). One possible explanation is that the contagion effect takes place early in the crisis and that herding behaviour dominates the latter stages of the crisis. For our second question, the apparent high correlation coefficients during crisis periods imply that the gain from international diversification by holding a portfolio consisting of diverse stocks from these contagion countries declines, since these stock markets are commonly exposed to systematic risk(beta). An increasing integration and stronger co-movement among stock markets will result in decreasing opportunity to gain from portfolio diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Masih, Mansur & Majid, Hamdan Abdul, 2013. "The Volatility and Correlations of Stock Returns of Some Crisis-Hit Countries: US, Greece, Thailand and Malaysia: Evidence from MGARCH-DCC applications," MPRA Paper 58946, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:58946
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/58946/1/MPRA_paper_58946.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    2. Pesaran, Bahram & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2007. "Modelling Volatilities and Conditional Correlations in Futures Markets with a Multivariate t Distribution," IZA Discussion Papers 2906, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Bahram Pesaran, 2007. "Volatilities and Conditional Correlations in Futures Markets with a Multivariate t Distribution," CESifo Working Paper Series 2056, CESifo.
    4. Kearney, Colm & Poti, Valerio, 2006. "Correlation dynamics in European equity markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 305-321, September.
    5. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    7. Enzo Weber, 2010. "Volatility and causality in Asia Pacific financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(16), pages 1269-1292.
    8. Lee, Jong-Wha & Hong, Kiseok, 2012. "Economic growth in Asia: Determinants and prospects," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 101-113.
    9. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chiang, Thomas C. & Jeon, Bang Nam & Li, Huimin, 2007. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1206-1228, November.
    2. Tejeda, Hernan A. & Goodwin, Barry K. & Pelletier, Denis, 2009. "A State Dependent Regime Switching Model of Dynamic Correlations," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49370, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Dynamic Stock Market Interactions between the Canadian, Mexican, and the United States Markets: The NAFTA Experience," Working papers 2008-49, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    4. Cavit Pakel & Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard & Robert F. Engle, 2021. "Fitting Vast Dimensional Time-Varying Covariance Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 652-668, July.
    5. Abu S. Amin & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2014. "Returns, Volatilities, and Correlations Across Mature, Regional, and Frontier Markets: Evidence from South Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 5-27, May.
    6. David McMillan & Isabel Ruiz & Alan Speight, 2010. "Correlations and spillovers among three euro rates: evidence using realised variance," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 753-767.
    7. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Min, Hong-Ghi, 2013. "Reassessing the link between the Japanese yen and emerging Asian currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 306-326.
    8. Kuper, Gerard H. & Lestano, 2007. "Dynamic conditional correlation analysis of financial market interdependence: An application to Thailand and Indonesia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 670-684, August.
    9. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Patrick Wai Yin Cheung & Edward Chi Ho Tang, 2013. "Financial Crisis and the Co-movements of Housing Sub-markets: Do relationships change after a crisis?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 16(1), pages 68-118.
    10. Emerson Fernandes Marcal & Pedro Valls Pereira & Diogenes Manoel Leiva Martin & Wilson Toshiro Nakamura, 2011. "Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(19), pages 2365-2379.
    11. Billio, M. & Donadelli, M. & Paradiso, A. & Riedel, M., 2017. "Which market integration measure?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 150-174.
    12. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2015. "Spillover effects of the U.S. financial crisis on financial markets in emerging Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 192-210.
    13. Rahim, Adam Mohamed & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Portfolio diversification benefits of Islamic investors with their major trading partners: Evidence from Malaysia based on MGARCH-DCC and wavelet approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 425-438.
    14. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2008. "Testing the Hypothesis of Contagion Using Multivariate Volatility Models," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 28(2), November.
    15. Koulakiotis, Athanasios & Kartalis, Nikos & Lyroudi, Katerina & Papasyriopoulos, Nicholas, 2013. "The impact of corporate governance, regulatory differences and futures contracts on movements among portfolios of cross-listed equities: The case of Germany," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 34-53.
    16. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    17. Idier, J., 2006. "Stock exchanges industry consolidation and shock transmission," Working papers 159, Banque de France.
    18. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2016. "International contagion through financial versus non-financial firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 143-163.
    19. Pappas, Vasileios & Ingham, Hilary & Izzeldin, Marwan & Steele, Gerry, 2016. "Will the crisis “tear us apart”? Evidence from the EU," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 346-360.
    20. Luis V. Bejarano-Bejarano & Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Luis F. Melo-Velandia & Jhon E. Torres-Gorron, 2015. "Financial Contagion in Latin America," Borradores de Economia 12820, Banco de la Republica.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; Correlations; portfolio diversification; MGARCH-DCC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:58946. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.