IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/51325.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Soft computing for crisis management and political decision making: the use of genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps

Author

Listed:
  • Andreou, Andreas S.
  • Mateou, Nicos H.
  • Zombanakis, George A.

Abstract

This paper examines the use of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) as a technique for modeling political and strategic issues situations and supporting the decisionmaking process in view of an imminent crisis. Its object domain is soft computing using as its basic elements different methods from the areas of fuzzy logic, cognitive maps, neural networks and genetic algorithms. FCMs, more specifically, use notions borrowed from artificial intelligence and combine characteristics of both fuzzy logic and neural networks, in the form of dynamic models that describe a given political setting. The present work proposes the use of the genetically evolved certainty neuron fuzzy cognitive map (GECNFCM) as an extension of certainty neuron fuzzy cognitive maps (CNFCMs) aiming at overcoming the main weaknesses of the latter, namely the recalculation of the weights corresponding to each concept every time a new strategy is adopted. This novel technique combines CNFCMs with genetic algorithms (GAs), the advantage of which lies with their ability to offer the optimal solution without a problem-solving strategy, once the requirements are defined. Using a multiple scenario analysis we demonstrate the value of such a hybrid technique in the context of a model that reflects the political and strategic complexity of the Cyprus issue, as well as the uncertainties involved in it. The issue has been treated on a purely technical level, with distances carefully kept concerning all sides involved in it.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreou, Andreas S. & Mateou, Nicos H. & Zombanakis, George A., 2005. "Soft computing for crisis management and political decision making: the use of genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps," MPRA Paper 51325, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Nov 2004.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:51325
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51325/2/MPRA_paper_51325.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. F S Roberts, 1975. "Weighted Digraph Models for the Assessment of Energy Use and Air Pollution in Transportation Systems," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 7(6), pages 703-724, September.
    2. Bunn, Derek W. & Salo, Ahti A., 1993. "Forecasting with scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 291-303, August.
    3. A. S. Andreou & G. A. Zombanakis, 2001. "A neural network measurement of relative military security - the case of Greece and Cyprus," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 303-324.
    4. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2001. "A Neural Network Measurement of Relative Military Security: The Case of Greece and Cyprus," MPRA Paper 14539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mateou, N. H. & Andreou, A. S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2004. "Fuzzification and Defuzzification Process in Genetically Evolved Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (GEFCMs)," MPRA Paper 51376, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jun 2004.
    2. Adil Baykasoğlu & İlker Gölcük & Derya Eren Akyol, 2017. "A fuzzy multiple-attribute decision making model to evaluate new product pricing strategies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 251(1), pages 205-242, April.
    3. A. S. Andreou & K. E. Parsopoulos & M. N. Vrahatis & G. A. Zombanakis, 2004. "An alliance between Cyprus and Greece: assessing its partners' relative security contribution," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 481-495.
    4. Bąk Iwona & Cheba Katarzyna, 2020. "Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and their Application in the Economic Sciences," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 24(3), pages 20-36, September.
    5. Magdalena Ziolo & Beata Zofia Filipiak & Iwona Bąk & Katarzyna Cheba, 2019. "How to Design More Sustainable Financial Systems: The Roles of Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors in the Decision-Making Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-34, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andreou, Andreas S. & Mateou, Nicos H. & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "The Cyprus Puzzle and the Greek – Turkish Arms Race," MPRA Paper 78749, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2003.
    2. Andreou, A. S. & Mateou, N. H. & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Crisis Management and Political Decision Making Using Genetically Evolved Fuzzy Cognitive Maps," MPRA Paper 51639, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Feb 2003.
    3. ANDREOU, A. S. & PARSOPOULOS, K. E. & VRACHATIS, M. N. & Zombanakis, George A., 2002. "Searching for the Optimal Defence Expenditure: An Answer in the Context of the Greek – Turkish Arms Race," MPRA Paper 51580, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Aug 2002.
    4. Andreou Andreas S & Zombanakis George A, 2006. "The Arms Race between Greece and Turkey: Commenting on a Major Unresolved Issue," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 54-69, September.
    5. A. S. Andreou & K. E. Parsopoulos & M. N. Vrahatis & G. A. Zombanakis, 2004. "An alliance between Cyprus and Greece: assessing its partners' relative security contribution," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 481-495.
    6. ANDREOU, ANDREAS & PARSOPOULOS, KONSTANTINE & VRACHATIS, MICHAEL & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Optimal Versus Required Defence Spending," MPRA Paper 78663, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2003.
    7. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Intelligent information systems for defence problems," MPRA Paper 38637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Andreou, Andreas S. & Parsopoulos, Konstantine & Vrachatis, Michael & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Optimal Versus Required Defence Expenditure Revisited," MPRA Paper 78765, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2003.
    9. Jonathan P. Kastellec, 2010. "The Statistical Analysis of Judicial Decisions and Legal Rules with Classification Trees," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(2), pages 202-230, June.
    10. A. S. Andreou & K. E. Parsopoulos & M. N. Vrahatis & G. A. Zombanakis, 2002. "Optimal versus required defence expenditure: The case of the Greek-Turkish arms race," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 329-347.
    11. Phelps, R. & Chan, C. & Kapsalis, S. C., 2001. "Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 223-232, March.
    12. Boender, Guus C. E., 1997. "A hybrid simulation/optimisation scenario model for asset/liability management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 126-135, May.
    13. Tokat, Yesim & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Schwartz, Eduardo, 2000. "The Stable non-Gaussian Asset Allocation: A Comparison with the Classical Gaussian Approach," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt9ph6b5gp, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    14. Salo, Ahti & Doumpos, Michalis & Liesiö, Juuso & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2024. "Fifty years of portfolio optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 318(1), pages 1-18.
    15. Jessica Olivares-Aguila & Alejandro Vital-Soto, 2021. "Supply Chain Resilience Roadmaps for Major Disruptions," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-18, November.
    16. Ahti Salo, 2021. "Developing the needed scientific theory will not be easy: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    17. Wiek, Arnim & Walter, Alexander I., 2009. "A transdisciplinary approach for formalized integrated planning and decision-making in complex systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 360-370, August.
    18. Gambelli, Danilo & Alberti, Francesca & Solfanelli, Francesco & Vairo, Daniela & Zanoli, Raffaele, 2017. "Third generation algae biofuels in Italy by 2030: A scenario analysis using Bayesian networks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 165-178.
    19. Zanoli, Raffaele & Gambelli, Danilo & Vairo, Daniela, 2012. "Scenarios of the organic food market in Europe," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 41-57.
    20. Onsel Sahin, Sule & Ulengin, Fusun & Ulengin, Burc, 2004. "Using neural networks and cognitive mapping in scenario analysis: The case of Turkey's inflation dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 124-145, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Neuro-Fuzzy systems Fuzzy cognitive maps Hybrid modeling Genetic algorithms;

    JEL classification:

    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:51325. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.