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Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A Peep Inside the Black Box

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  • Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar
  • Jain, Rajeev

Abstract

Using SVAR models on quarterly data for 1996-97:1 to 2011-12:1, the paper examines the relative importance of various transmission channels of monetary policy to GDP growth and inflation in India. It finds that external exogenous factors prolong the impact of monetary policy transmission on GDP growth and inflation in India, while removing the problem of ‘price puzzle’. Among the various channels of transmission, interest rate channel, credit channel and asset prices channel are found to be important, while exchange rate channel is weak. A positive shock to policy rate leads to slowdown in credit growth with a lag of two quarters and subsequently impacts GDP growth and inflation negatively. The same monetary policy shock has a negative impact on asset prices from the third quarter onwards and, in turn, has a pronounced negative impact on GDP growth and inflation. Exchange rate channel is found to have an insignificant impact on GDP growth, but has non-negligible impact on inflation. Interest rate channel is found to account for about half of the total impact of monetary shocks on GDP growth and about one-third of the total impact on inflation, indicating that interest rate channel is the most important channel for monetary policy transmission in India.

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  • Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar & Jain, Rajeev, 2012. "Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A Peep Inside the Black Box," MPRA Paper 50903, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50903
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    3. S. Gangadaran, 2017. "Inflation in India: Behavior of Major Components," Working Papers wp18, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    4. Silu Muduli & Harendra Behera, 2023. "Bank capital and monetary policy transmission in India," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 32-56, January.
    5. Vikas Charmal & Ashima Goyal, 2021. "Liquidity management and monetary transmission: empirical analysis for India," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(5), pages 850-875, July.
    6. Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam, 2017. "Examining the Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 11(3), pages 290-314, August.
    7. Lan Nguyen, Thi Mai & Papyrakis, Elissaios & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2021. "Publication bias in the price effects of monetary policy: A meta-regression analysis for emerging and developing economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 567-583.
    8. Saibal Ghosh, 2022. "Does financial interconnectedness affect monetary transmission? Evidence from India," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 273-300, September.
    9. Shesadri Banerjee & Harendra Behera, 2023. "Financial frictions, bank intermediation and monetary policy transmission in India," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 749-785, July.
    10. Harendra Behera & Sitikantha Pattanaik & Rajesh Kavediya, 2015. "Natural Interest Rate: Assessing the Stance of India’s Monetary Policy under Uncertainty," Working Papers id:7654, eSocialSciences.
    11. Deba Prasad Rath & Pratik Mitra & Joice John, 2017. "A Measure of Finance-Neutral Output Gap for India," Working Papers id:11986, eSocialSciences.
    12. Kumar, Ankit & Dash, Pradyumna, 2020. "Changing transmission of monetary policy on disaggregate inflation in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 109-125.
    13. Ashima Goyal & Deepak Kumar Agarwal, 2017. "Monetary transmission in India: Working of price and quantum channels," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2017-017, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    14. Ashima Goyal & Prashant Parab, 2021. "Effectiveness of expectations channel of monetary policy transmission: Evidence from India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-011, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    15. Tafajul Hossain & Biswajit Maitra, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in India Under Monetary-targeting and Multiple-indicator Approach Regimes," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 19(1), pages 108-124, June.
    16. Singh, Sunny Kumar & Rao, D. Tripati, 2014. "Sectoral effects of monetary policy shock: evidence from India," MPRA Paper 62069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Adejare Yusuff Aremu & Shahzad Arfan, 2023. "Factors Influencing the Usage of E-Business to Improve SME Performance," International Journal of E-Business Research (IJEBR), IGI Global, vol. 19(1), pages 1-16, January.
    18. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar, 2013. "A Note on Differential Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply and Policy Rate Shocks in India," MPRA Paper 53058, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Goyal, Ashima & Parab, Prashant, 2021. "What influences aggregate inflation expectations of households in India?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    20. Ashima Goyal, 2018. "The Growth slowdown and the working of inflation targeting in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2018-007, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    21. Goyal, Ashima & Agarwal, Deepak Kumar, 2020. "Policy transmission in Indian money markets: The role of liquidity," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    22. Aeimit Lakdawala & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2021. "Measuring monetary policy shocks in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-021, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    23. Samahita Phul, 2024. "Efficacy of Monetary Policy Transmission During the Flexible Inflation Targeting Regime in India," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 13(1), pages 70-99, June.
    24. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty & N R Bhanumurthy, 2020. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Transmission in India:Does Financial Friction Matter?," BASE University Working Papers 03/2020, BASE University, Bengaluru, India.
    25. Thi Mai Lan Nguyen, 2020. "Output Effects of Monetary Policy in Emerging and Developing Countries: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 68-85, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest Rate Channel; Monetary Policy; Monetary Transmission; Structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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