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A Search for Business Cycles with Spectral Analysis

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  • Dale, Charles

Abstract

There has been considerable debate in recent years about whether well-defined business cycles even exist. At one extreme are those who assert that so-called business cycles are caused by exogenous shocks. At the other extreme are those who believe that business cycles may be endogenous, i.e., the economy has a natural tendency to go through periods of recession and depression. We used spectral analysis to search for business cycles, but we did not find any clear evidence of their existence.

Suggested Citation

  • Dale, Charles, 1984. "A Search for Business Cycles with Spectral Analysis," MPRA Paper 49508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49508
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/49508/1/MPRA_paper_49508.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dale, Charles & Gilroy, Curtis, 1985. "Enlistments in the All-Volunteer Force: Note," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 547-551, June.
    2. Varian, Hal R, 1979. "Catastrophe Theory and the Business Cycle," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(1), pages 14-28, January.
    3. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1984. "Pitfalls in the Use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(1), pages 73-82, January.
    4. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    5. Robert J. Gordon, 1977. "World Inflation and Monetary Accommodation in Eight Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(2), pages 409-478.
    6. Richard H. Day, 1983. "The Emergence of Chaos from Classical Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(2), pages 201-213.
    7. Dale, Charles & Workman, Rosemarie, 1981. "Measuring patterns of price movements in the Treasury bill futures market," MPRA Paper 48639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Charles Dale & Victor B Bailey, 1982. "A Box-Jenkins Model for forecasting U.S. Merchandise Exports," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 13(1), pages 101-108, March.
    9. Jensen, Roderick V. & Urban, Robin, 1984. "Chaotic price behavior in a non-linear cobweb model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(3-4), pages 235-240.
    10. McCulloch, J Hutson, 1975. "The Monte Carlo Cycle in Business Activity," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 303-321, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dale, Charles, 1990. "From Kondratieff to Chaos: Some Perspectives on Long-Term and Short-Term Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 46229, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Spectral analysis; Statistical methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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