IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/48197.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Did Greenspan Open Pandora's Box? Testing the Taylor Hypothesis and Beyond

Author

Listed:
  • Palma, Nuno

Abstract

The Taylor hypothesis is the conjecture that the 2007-2009 financial crisis and the 2008-present downturn have been caused by loose monetary policy during 2002-2006. According to the Taylor hypothesis the Fed deviated from well-know rules of monetary policy-making over this period, and this deviation caused an inefficient boom and subsequent bust. I use a well know economic model of the US aggregate economy (Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans 2005) to test this hypothesis. I interpret shocks as deviations from Taylor-type rules. I conclude that the Taylor hypothesis for the Taylor rule fails to reproduce observed fluctuations in the data. Output increases only 0.3% at maximum which occurs at 2004:Q2. In the data, the output gap was at it's maximum in 2006:Q3. However, the Taylor hypothesis modified to incorporate persistence in the policy rule can partly explain the boom of the economy after 2001.

Suggested Citation

  • Palma, Nuno, 2013. "Did Greenspan Open Pandora's Box? Testing the Taylor Hypothesis and Beyond," MPRA Paper 48197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48197
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/48197/1/MPRA_paper_48197.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    3. Ravn Søren Hove, 2012. "Has the Fed Reacted Asymmetrically to Stock Prices?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-36, June.
    4. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    5. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    6. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
    7. Christiano, Lawrence J, 2002. "Solving Dynamic Equilibrium Models by a Method of Undetermined Coefficients," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 21-55, October.
    8. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.
    2. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Kollintzas, Tryphon & Tsoukalas, Konstantinos, 2015. "Bank and Sovereign Risk Interdependence in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 10485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Lindé, J. & Smets, F. & Wouters, R., 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks’ Macro Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2185-2262, Elsevier.
    5. Jae Won Lee, 2010. "Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Households and Financial Frictions," 2010 Meeting Papers 1021, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2010. "Financial factors in economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series 1192, European Central Bank.
    7. Etro, Federico, 2017. "Research in economics and macroeconomics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 373-383.
    8. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    9. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    10. Ricardo Nunes & Jinill Kim & Jesper Linde & Davide Debortoli, 2014. "Designing a Simple Loss Function for the Fed: Does the Dual Mandate Make Sense?," 2014 Meeting Papers 1043, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    12. Juillard, Michael & Kamenik, Ondra & Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas, 2008. "Optimal price setting and inflation inertia in a rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2584-2621, August.
    13. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2007. "Monetary policy, expected inflation and inflation risk premia," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2007, Bank of Finland.
    14. Nunes, Ricardo, 2009. "Learning The Inflation Target," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 167-188, April.
    15. Imen Ben Mohamed & Marine Salès, 2015. "Credit imperfections, labor market frictions and unemployment: a DSGE approach," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01082491, HAL.
    16. Rupert, Peter & Šustek, Roman, 2019. "On the mechanics of New-Keynesian models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 53-69.
    17. Lawrence Christiano & Mathias Trabandt & Karl Walentin, 2021. "Involuntary Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 26-54, January.
    18. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2005. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 11417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Issing Otmar & Wieland Volker, 2013. "Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy: Reflections on the Development over the last 150 Years," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(3), pages 423-445, June.
    20. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2009. "Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle, and Indeterminacy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1557-1584, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle; Financial Crisis; Great Moderation; Monetary Shocks; Persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.