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To the problem of evaluation of market risk of global equity index portfolio in global capital markets

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  • Ledenyov, Dimitri O.
  • Ledenyov, Viktor O.

Abstract

Thinking about the development of the unifying mathematical approach to solve the problem on the evaluation of market risk of the global equity index portfolio in the highly volatile global capital markets, the authors focus their attention to an increasing necessity of application of the dynamic assessment of the financial systems with the use of the continuous system representation models, which allows to make the accurate characterization of the Returns on Investments (ROI) of the diversified global equity index portfolio. In our view, the creation of the complex computer models to accurately characterize the financial system’s operating modes results in ability by the investors to find the categorical behaviour properties of the financial system and to predict its dynamic properties precisely. In our opinion, in the periods of the challenging turbulent economic conditions in Bernanke (1995), the process of extraction of useful knowledge from the big streams of financial data from the various capital markets with the aim to make the virtuous investment decisions requires a deep understanding of the cognitive modeling techniques in application to the investment decision making as far as the global equity index portfolio is concerned. We analyzed the nature of the current financial and economic crises in the USA, presenting the views by the American business leaders, academicians and politicians, which were publicly expressed at The Economic Club of Washington in Washington, District Columbia in the USA. We highlighted the fact that it is important for the institutional and private investors to diversify their investments, and create the global equity index portfolio, aiming to increase the Return on Investment (ROI) and to accumulate the wealth in the course of the wealth management process at a global scale. Also, we considered the standard approach, which can be used to evaluate the market risk of a hypothetical global equity index portfolio with the Monte Carlo simulation technique, using the Student's t copula and the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) in Matlab (R2012). We proposed a conceptual framework, based on the suggestion that the application of the dynamic analysis of the nonlinear interactions between of the global capital flows can significantly leverage the effective investment control strategies in the researched case of the global equity index portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "To the problem of evaluation of market risk of global equity index portfolio in global capital markets," MPRA Paper 47708, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jun 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47708
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dimitri O. Ledenyov & Viktor O. Ledenyov, 2012. "On the Risk Management with Application of Econophysics Analysis in Central Banks and Financial Institutions," Papers 1211.4108, arXiv.org.
    2. Viktor O. Ledenyov & Dimitri O. Ledenyov, 2012. "Shaping the international financial system in century of globalization," Papers 1206.2022, arXiv.org.
    3. Bernanke, Ben & Parkinson, Martin, 1989. "Unemployment, Inflation, and Wages in the American Depression: Are There Lessons for Europe?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 210-214, May.
    4. Dimitri O. Ledenyov & Viktor O. Ledenyov, 2013. "To the problem of turbulence in quantitative easing transmission channels and transactions network channels at quantitative easing policy implementation by central banks," Papers 1305.5656, arXiv.org, revised May 2013.
    5. Dimitri O. Ledenyov & Viktor O. Ledenyov, 2013. "On the accurate characterization of business cycles in nonlinear dynamic financial and economic systems," Papers 1304.4807, arXiv.org.
    6. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
    7. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    8. Dimitri O. Ledenyov & Viktor O. Ledenyov, 2013. "On the optimal allocation of assets in investment portfolio with application of modern portfolio and nonlinear dynamic chaos theories in investment, commercial and central banks," Papers 1301.4881, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2013.
    9. Dimitri O. Ledenyov & Viktor O. Ledenyov, 2012. "On the new central bank strategy toward monetary and financial instabilities management in finances: Econophysical analysis of nonlinear dynamical financial systems," Papers 1211.1897, arXiv.org.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S, 1995. "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 1-28, February.
    11. Viktor O. Ledenyov & Dimitri O. Ledenyov, 2012. "Designing the new architecture of international financial system in era of great changes by globalization," Papers 1206.2778, arXiv.org.
    12. Bouye, Eric & Durlleman, Valdo & Nikeghbali, Ashkan & Riboulet, Gaël & Roncalli, Thierry, 2000. "Copulas for finance," MPRA Paper 37359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "Some thoughts on accurate characterization of stock market indexes trends in conditions of nonlinear capital flows during electronic trading at stock exchanges in global capital markets," MPRA Paper 49921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "On the Stratonovich – Kalman - Bucy filtering algorithm application for accurate characterization of financial time series with use of state-space model by central banks," MPRA Paper 50235, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment portfolio; risk evaluation; econophysics; econometrics; nonlinearities; nonlinear dynamic chaos theory; nonlinear dynamic financial and economic systems.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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