IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/47061.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Model projections and policy reviews for energy saving in China's service sector

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Lin

Abstract

Energy efficiency of buildings in the service sector is becoming increasingly important in China due to the structural shift of the economy from industry to services. This paper employs a bottom-up cohort model to simulate current energy saving policies and to make projections for future energy use and CO2 emissions for the period 2000-2030 in the Chinese service sector. The analysis shows that energy demand in the service sector will approximately triple in 2030, far beyond the target of quadrupling GDP while only doubling energy use. However, it is feasible to achieve the target of emission reduction by 40% in 2020 even under the poor state of compliance rate of building standard. This paper also highlights four crucial aspects of designing optimal energy saving policies for China's service sector based on the model results.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Lin, 2013. "Model projections and policy reviews for energy saving in China's service sector," MPRA Paper 47061, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47061
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/47061/1/MPRA_paper_47061.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheng, Chia-Chin, 2010. "A new NAMA framework for dispersed energy end-use sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5614-5624, October.
    2. World Bank, 2006. "World Development Indicators 2006," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 8151.
    3. Yang, Chi-Jen & Xuan, Xiaowei & Jackson, Robert B., 2012. "China's coal price disturbances: Observations, explanations, and implications for global energy economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 720-727.
    4. Lin, Jiang & Zhou, Nan & Levine, Mark & Fridley, David, 2008. "Taking out 1 billion tons of CO2: The magic of China's 11th Five-Year Plan?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 954-970, March.
    5. John C.B. Cooper, 2003. "Price elasticity of demand for crude oil: estimates for 23 countries," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 27(1), pages 1-8, March.
    6. von Hirschhausen, Christian & Andres, Michael, 2000. "Long-term electricity demand in China -- From quantitative to qualitative growth?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 231-241, April.
    7. Yao, Runming & Li, Baizhan & Steemers, Koen, 2005. "Energy policy and standard for built environment in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(13), pages 1973-1988.
    8. Cai, W.G. & Wu, Y. & Zhong, Y. & Ren, H., 2009. "China building energy consumption: Situation, challenges and corresponding measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2054-2059, June.
    9. Alcántara, Vicent & Padilla, Emilio, 2009. "Input-output subsystems and pollution: An application to the service sector and CO2 emissions in Spain," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 905-914, January.
    10. Ravetz, Joe, 2008. "State of the stock--What do we know about existing buildings and their future prospects?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 4462-4470, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sheng, Weili & Zhang, Lin & Ridley, Ian, 2020. "The impact of minimum OTTV legislation on building energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. Hu, Bin & Li, Zhengtao & Zhang, Lin, 2019. "Long-run dynamics of sulphur dioxide emissions, economic growth and energy efficiency in China," MPRA Paper 94588, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Xiangzhao FENG & Oleg LUGOVOY & Sheng YAN & Hu QIN, 2016. "Co-Benefits of CO2 and NOx Emission Control in China’s Cement Industry," Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies (CJUES), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(04), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Vishal Chandr Jaunky and Lin Zhang, 2016. "Convergence of Operational Efficiency in Chinas Provincial Power Sectors," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(China Spe).
    5. Massimo Filippini & Lin Zhang, 2019. "Impacts of heat metering and efficiency retrofit policy on residential energy consumption in China," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 21(2), pages 203-216, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bai, Lujian & Yang, Liu & Song, Bing & Liu, Na, 2020. "A new approach to develop a climate classification for building energy efficiency addressing Chinese climate characteristics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    2. Ahmed Salih Mohammed & Panagiotis G. Asteris & Mohammadreza Koopialipoor & Dimitrios E. Alexakis & Minas E. Lemonis & Danial Jahed Armaghani, 2021. "Stacking Ensemble Tree Models to Predict Energy Performance in Residential Buildings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-22, July.
    3. Tan, Xianchun & Lai, Haiping & Gu, Baihe & Zeng, Yuan & Li, Hui, 2018. "Carbon emission and abatement potential outlook in China's building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 429-439.
    4. Hossein Moayedi & Bao Le Van, 2022. "The Applicability of Biogeography-Based Optimization and Earthworm Optimization Algorithm Hybridized with ANFIS as Reliable Solutions in Estimation of Cooling Load in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-17, October.
    5. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2008. "An econometrics view of worldwide fossil fuel consumption and the role of US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 775-786, February.
    6. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2007. "A panel cointegration analysis of the demand for oil in the Middle East," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6258-6265, December.
    7. Huijie Yan, 2015. "The Integration of Energy, Environment and Health Policies in China: A Review," AMSE Working Papers 1548, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised 10 Nov 2015.
    8. Huijie Yan, 2015. "The Integration of Energy, Environment and Health Policies in China: A Review," Working Papers halshs-01247183, HAL.
    9. Nasreen, Samia & Anwar, Sofia & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2017. "Financial stability, energy consumption and environmental quality: Evidence from South Asian economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1105-1122.
    10. Russell S. Sobel & Nabamita Dutta & Sanjukta Roy, 2010. "Beyond Borders: Is Media Freedom Contagious?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 133-143, February.
    11. Kaika, Dimitra & Zervas, Efthimios, 2013. "The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) theory. Part B: Critical issues," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1403-1411.
    12. Youngho Chang & Yanfei Li, . "An Integrated Asian Natural Gas Market: Potentials and Policy Implications," Chapters,, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    13. Haugom, Erik & Mydland, Ørjan & Pichler, Alois, 2016. "Long term oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 84-94.
    14. Butnar, Isabela & Llop Llop, Maria, 2010. "Structural decomposition analysis and input-output subsystems: An application to Spanish CO2 emissions," Working Papers 2072/151546, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    15. Aleksynska, Mariya & Tritah, Ahmed, 2013. "Occupation–education mismatch of immigrant workers in Europe: Context and policies," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 229-244.
    16. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2014. "A simple model of an oil based global savings glut—the “China factor”and the OPEC cartel," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 413-430, September.
    17. Isis Gaddis & Stephan Klasen, 2014. "Economic development, structural change, and women’s labor force participation:," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 639-681, July.
    18. Bourdon, Jean & Frölich, Markus & Michaelowa, Katharina, 2007. "Teacher Shortages, Teacher Contracts and their Impact on Education in Africa," IZA Discussion Papers 2844, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Samargandi, Nahla, 2017. "Sector value addition, technology and CO2 emissions in Saudi Arabia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 868-877.
    20. Liu, Wenling & Zhang, Jinyun & Bluemling, Bettina & Mol, Arthur P.J. & Wang, Can, 2015. "Public participation in energy saving retrofitting of residential buildings in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 287-296.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy saving policy; Bottom-up; Service sector;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47061. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.