IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/45518.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Saving Rate Dynamics in the Neoclassical Growth Model – Hyperbolic Discounting and Observational Equivalence

Author

Listed:
  • Farzin, Y. Hossein
  • Wendner, Ronald

Abstract

The standard neoclassical growth model with Cobb-Douglas production predicts a monotonically declining saving rate, when reasonably calibrated. Ample empirical evidence, however, shows that the transition path of a country’s saving rate exhibits a rising or non- monotonic pattern. In important cases, hyperbolic discounting, which is empirically strongly supported, implies transitional dynamics of the saving rate that accords well with empirical evidence. This holds true even in a growth model with Cobb-Douglas production technology. We also identify those cases in which hyperbolic discounting is observationally equivalent to exponential discounting. In those cases, hyperbolic discounting does not affect the saving rate dynamics. Numerical simulations employing a generalized class of hyperbolic discounting functions that we term regular discounting functions support the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Farzin, Y. Hossein & Wendner, Ronald, 2013. "Saving Rate Dynamics in the Neoclassical Growth Model – Hyperbolic Discounting and Observational Equivalence," MPRA Paper 45518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45518
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45518/1/MPRA_paper_45518.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Bosworth & Gary Burtless & John Sabelhaus, 1991. "The Decline in Saving: Evidence from Household Surveys," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 183-256.
    2. Gong, Liutang & Smith, William & Zou, Heng-fu, 2007. "Consumption and Risk with hyperbolic discounting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 153-160, August.
    3. Trimborn, Timo & Koch, Karl-Josef & Steger, Thomas M., 2008. "Multidimensional Transitional Dynamics: A Simple Numerical Procedure," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 301-319, June.
    4. Kent Smetters, 2003. "The (Interesting) Dynamic Properties of the Neoclassical Growth Model with CES Production," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(3), pages 697-707, July.
    5. Caliendo, Frank & Aadland, David, 2007. "Short-term planning and the life-cycle consumption puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1392-1415, April.
    6. Litina, Anastasia & Palivos, Theodore, 2010. "The Behavior Of The Saving Rate In The Neoclassical Optimal Growth Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 482-500, September.
    7. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    8. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    9. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1996. "The Poverty of Nations: A Quantitative Exploration," NBER Working Papers 5414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. repec:bla:scandj:v:94:y:1992:i:2:p:181-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:bla:scandj:v:94:y:1992:i:2:p:155-75 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Schmidt-Hebbel,Klaus & Servén,Luis (ed.), 1999. "The Economics of Saving and Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632959, October.
    13. Gómez, Manuel A., 2008. "Dynamics Of The Saving Rate In The Neoclassical Growth Model With Ces Production," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 195-210, April.
    14. Findley, T. Scott & Caliendo, Frank N., 2014. "Interacting mechanisms of time inconsistency," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 68-76.
    15. David Laibson, 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 443-478.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:grz:wpaper:2013-05 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Farzin, Y. Hossein & Wendner, Ronald, 2014. "The Time Path of the Saving Rate: Hyperbolic Discounting and Short-Term Planning," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 178243, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    3. Achim Voss & Jörg Lingens, 2018. "What's the damage? Environmental regulation with policy‐motivated bureaucrats," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 20(4), pages 613-633, August.
    4. repec:grz:wpaper:2014-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Litina, Anastasia & Palivos, Theodore, 2010. "The Behavior Of The Saving Rate In The Neoclassical Optimal Growth Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 482-500, September.
    6. Francisco Cabo & Guiomar Martín-Herrán & María Pilar Martínez-García, 2020. "Non-constant Discounting, Social Welfare and Endogenous Growth with Pollution Externalities," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(2), pages 369-403, July.
    7. Park, Hyeon & Feigenbaum, James, 2018. "Bounded rationality, lifecycle consumption, and Social Security," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 65-105.
    8. Feigenbaum, James, 2016. "Equivalent representations of non-exponential discounting models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 58-71.
    9. Shigeta, Yuki, 2022. "Quasi-hyperbolic discounting under recursive utility and consumption–investment decisions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    10. Feigenbaum, James, 2008. "Can mortality risk explain the consumption hump?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 844-872, September.
    11. Groneck, Max & Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2016. "A life-cycle model with ambiguous survival beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 137-180.
    12. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    13. Gary V. Engelhardt & Anil Kumar, 2007. "Employer Matching and 401(k) Saving: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," NBER Chapters, in: Public Policy and Retirement, Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), pages 1920-1943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Gechert, Sebastian & Mey, Bianka & Opatrny, Matej & Havranek, Tomas & Stanley, T. D. & Bom, Pedro R. D. & Doucouliagos, Hristos & Heimberger, Philipp & Irsova, Zuzana & Rachinger, Heiko J., 2023. "Conventional Wisdom, Meta-Analysis, and Research Revision in Economics," EconStor Preprints 280745, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    15. Geraats, P.M., 2005. "Intertemporal Substitution and Hyperbolic Discounting," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0515, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Jonathan S. Skinner, 1996. "Is Housing Wealth a Sideshow?," NBER Chapters, in: Advances in the Economics of Aging, pages 241-272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Narayana Kocherlakota & Luigi Pistaferri, 2009. "Asset Pricing Implications of Pareto Optimality with Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 555-590, June.
    18. Cabo, Francisco & Martín-Herrán, Guiomar & Martínez-García, María Pilar, 2015. "Non-constant discounting and Ak-type growth models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 54-58.
    19. David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2000. "Consumer Response to Changes in Credit Supply: Evidence from Credit Card Data," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-04, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    20. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    21. Chen, Shumin & Luo, Dan & Yao, Haixiang, 2024. "Optimal investor life cycle decisions with time-inconsistent preferences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    22. Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco, 2008. "Growth outside the stable path: Lessons from the European reconstruction," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 568-588, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Saving rate; non-monotonic transition path; hyperbolic discounting; regular discounting; commitment; short planning horizon; neoclassical growth model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45518. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.