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The relationship between international tourism and economic growth: the case of Morocco and Tunisia

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  • Bouzahzah, Mohamed
  • El Menyari, Younesse

Abstract

This study proposes to examine the impact of tourism activity on the economic growth of Morocco and Tunisia. We contribute here to the empirical literature on the tourism-led growth (TLG) hypothesis, by adopting the error correction model framework, the cointegration and Granger Causality tests between real tourism receipts, real effective exchange rate and economic growth in Morocco and Tunisia, for the annual period 1980-2010; two main results emerge from this analysis. First, contrary to the predictions of the TLG hypothesis, the Granger test results show that this hypothesis is only valid for short-term in the two countries of Maghreb. Second, the results show that in the long term, there is a strong unidirectional causality from economic growth to international tourism receipts.

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  • Bouzahzah, Mohamed & El Menyari, Younesse, 2013. "The relationship between international tourism and economic growth: the case of Morocco and Tunisia," MPRA Paper 44102, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44102
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    Cited by:

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    3. Osinubi, Tolulope Temilola & Osinubi , Olufemi Bankole, 2020. "Inclusive Growth in Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(2), July.
    4. Hasan Murat Ertugrul & Fatih Mangir, 2015. "The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 633-646, July.
    5. Oluwatosin Adeniyi & Terver T Kumeka & Samuel Orekoya & Wasiu Adekunle, 2023. "Impact of tourism development on inclusive growth: A panel vector autoregression analysis for African economies," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(3), pages 612-642, May.
    6. Josué, ANDRIANADY & E. ALIDA, Camara & Randrianantenaina, Kantotiana S. & M. Andreas, Jonathan, 2024. "Tourism’s Impact on Inclusive Growth and CO2 Emissions in the Case of Madagascar," MPRA Paper 121648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Haouas, Ilham, 2017. "Is the tourism-economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top ten tourist destinations," MPRA Paper 82713, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Nov 2017.
    8. Naradda Gamage, Sisira Kumara & Kumudumali, S. H. T. & Otamurodov, Shavkat, 2020. "The Nexus between Tourism and Economic Growth: A Systematic Literature Review and Future Research Directions," MPRA Paper 104086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Muhammad Shahbaz & Román Ferrer & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Ilham Haouas, 2018. "Is the tourism–economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(24), pages 2677-2697, May.
    10. Uktam Umurzakov & Shakhnoza Tosheva & Raufhon Salahodjaev, 2023. "Tourism and Sustainable Economic Development: Evidence from Belt and Road Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(1), pages 503-516, March.
    11. Muhammad Ahad, 2016. "Does Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis exist in Pakistan? A Freshlook from Combine Cointegration and Causality Approach with Structural Breaks," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(2), pages 94-111, February.
    12. Manuel González-Gómez, 2022. "European outbound tourism expansion on the islands of Cape Verde," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 1129-1150, June.
    13. Buthaina M. A. Muhtaseb & Hussam-Eldin Daoud, 2017. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Jordan: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Frameworks," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 214-223.
    14. Nduka, Eleanya K., 2018. "Modeling the Long-Run Relationship Between Exchange Rate-Tourism Pass-Through and Growth: The Case of Nigeria?," MPRA Paper 86584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Driha, Oana M. & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sinha, Avik, 2020. "The effects of tourism and globalization over environmental degradation in developed countries," MPRA Paper 100092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Erdoğan, Seyfettin & Gedikli, Ayfer & Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Erdoğan, Fatma, 2022. "Eco-friendly technologies, international tourism and carbon emissions: Evidence from the most visited countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    17. Chor Foon Tang & Salah Abosedra, 2016. "Tourism and growth in Lebanon: new evidence from bootstrap simulation and rolling causality approaches," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 679-696, March.
    18. Benzarour, Choukri & satour, rachid, 2016. "السياحة والنمو الاقتصادي في الجزائر : الأدلة من التكامل المشترك و تحليل السببية [Tourism and economic growth in Algeria: Evidence of Cointegration and causal analysis]," MPRA Paper 78731, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    TLG hypothesis; tourism receipts; economic growth; cointegration; Granger causality; Morocco and Tunisia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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