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Strategic Asset Allocation for Central Bank’s Management of Foreign Reserves: A new approach

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  • Zhang, Zhichao
  • Chau, Frankie
  • Xie, Li

Abstract

This paper proposes a new approach to strategic asset allocation for central banks’ management of foreign reserves. This eclectic approach combines the behavioural portfolio management in the framework of mean-variance mental accounting (MVMA) with the improvements on asset return forecast offered by the Black-Litterman (B-L) model, proving particularly suitable for the reserve management policy with multiple objectives. The B-L model is embedded into the MVMA framework to obtain both the equilibrium and the B-L returns as our improved forecasts, formulating forward-looking investment strategies. The approach is applied to the case of China to derive optimal asset allocation for the Chinese central bank.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Zhichao & Chau, Frankie & Xie, Li, 2012. "Strategic Asset Allocation for Central Bank’s Management of Foreign Reserves: A new approach," MPRA Paper 43654, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43654
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/43654/1/MPRA_paper_43654.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michaud, Richard O. & Michaud, Robert O., 2008. "Efficient Asset Management: A Practical Guide to Stock Portfolio Optimization and Asset Allocation," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780195331912.
    2. S Satchell & A Scowcroft, 2000. "A demystification of the Black–Litterman model: Managing quantitative and traditional portfolio construction," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(2), pages 138-150, September.
    3. Das, Sanjiv & Markowitz, Harry & Scheid, Jonathan & Statman, Meir, 2010. "Portfolio Optimization with Mental Accounts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 311-334, April.
    4. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    5. Best, Michael J & Grauer, Robert R, 1991. "On the Sensitivity of Mean-Variance-Efficient Portfolios to Changes in Asset Means: Some Analytical and Computational Results," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 315-342.
    6. John Nugee, 2000. "Foreign Exchange Reserves Management," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 19, April.
    7. Barros Fernandes, José Luiz & Haas Ornelas, José Renato & Martínez Cusicanqui, Oscar Augusto, 2012. "Combining equilibrium, resampling, and analyst’s views in portfolio optimization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1354-1361.
    8. Rosella Giacometti & Marida Bertocchi & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2007. "Stable distributions in the Black-Litterman approach to asset allocation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 423-433.
    9. Robert N McCauley & Jean-François Rigaudy, 2011. "Managing foreign exchange reserves in the crisis and after," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 19-47, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 2000. "Behavioral Portfolio Theory," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 127-151, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miss Yinqiu Lu & Yilin Wang, 2019. "Determinants of Currency Composition of Reserves: a Portfolio Theory Approach with an Application to RMB," IMF Working Papers 2019/052, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reserve Management; Strategic Asset Allocation; Mental Accounting; Black-Litterman model; China’s Foreign Reserves;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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