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Debt and nonlinear fiscal policy: evidence from the states

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  • Gray, Jo Anna
  • Stone, Joe A.

Abstract

Evidence from a half century of experience by states identifies nonlinearities in the effects of debt and fiscal policy on growth. Effects are Keynesian for low to moderate levels of debt and stimulus but anti Keynesian for sufficiently high levels of debt or stimulus. Results are broadly consistent with models by Barro (1999), Judd (1987), and others.

Suggested Citation

  • Gray, Jo Anna & Stone, Joe A., 2012. "Debt and nonlinear fiscal policy: evidence from the states," MPRA Paper 39731, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39731
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/39731/1/MPRA_paper_39731.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    3. Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 571-597, April.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    5. Mofidi, Alaeddin & Stone, Joe A, 1990. "Do State and Local Taxes Affect Economic Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 686-691, November.
    6. Judd, Kenneth, 1987. "Debt and distortionary taxation in a simple perfect foresight model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 51-72, July.
    7. Bania, Neil & Gray, Jo Anna & Stone, Joe A., 2007. "Growth, Taxes, and Government Expenditures: Growth Hills for U.S. States," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 60(2), pages 193-204, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shafi, Maryam & Asghar, Zahid, 2015. "Tax Policy and Economic Growth: A Semi-Parametric Approach Using AMT," MPRA Paper 66662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jo Anna Gray & Joe A. Stone, 2012. "Nonlinearities in the Effects of Debt and Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the States," Economic Research Guardian, Mutascu Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 152-159, December.
    3. Goldberg, Andrew & Romalis, John, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth in U.S. States," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    4. Mariuam SHAFI & Zahid ASGHAR & Saqlain RAZA, 2016. "Analyzing Tax Policy and Economic Growth by Using Semi-Parametric Approach," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 521-533, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    debt; fiscal policy; nonlinear; growth; Keynes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General

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