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Modelos de Estimación de la Brecha de Producto: Aplicación al PIB de la República Dominicana
[Models for Estimating the Output Gap: Application to the GDP of Dominican Republic]

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  • Francisco, Ramirez

Abstract

This document compares the proprieties of different empirical methodologies to estimate the output gap and the potential output (non-observable variables of interest to the design of monetary policy and macroeconomic analysis) using Dominican Republic as a case of study. The output gap and potential output are estimated with three different methods: univariated filters, non-observable variables methodology; and structural autorregresive vector (SVAR). Also, using all measures of output gap, a Phillip’s curve is estimated with each measure to evaluate the usability of these in macroeconometric models of policy analysis and forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco, Ramirez, 2011. "Modelos de Estimación de la Brecha de Producto: Aplicación al PIB de la República Dominicana [Models for Estimating the Output Gap: Application to the GDP of Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 38886, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38886
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    3. D. Gotteland, 2005. "Editorial," Post-Print halshs-00103100, HAL.
    4. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    5. Cruz Rodriguez, Alexis & Francos Rodriguez, Martin, 2008. "Estimaciones alternativas del PIB potencial en la República Dominicana [Alternative methods to estimate the potential GDP of the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 15614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    7. Lim, David, 1976. "On the Measurement of Capital Utilization in Less Developed Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 149-159, March.
    8. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
    9. D. Gotteland, 2005. "Editorial," Post-Print halshs-00094555, HAL.
    10. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Will Monetary Policy Become More of a Science?," NBER Working Papers 13566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Maral Kichian, 1999. "Measuring Potential Output within a State-Space Framework," Staff Working Papers 99-9, Bank of Canada.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Potential Output; Unobserved Component Model; Structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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