IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/37889.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Short run and Long run Dynamics of Macroeconomic Variables and Stock prices: Case Study of Karachi Stock Exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Hussain, Adnan
  • Lal, Irfan Lal
  • Memon, Mubin

Abstract

The prime object of the study is to find the long run relationship between macroeconomic variables and prices of shares in Karachi stock exchange in Pakistan context. For this purpose the study considers the monthly data of several macroeconomic variables such as real foreign exchange rate, foreign exchange reserve, industrial production index, whole sale price index, gross fixed capital formation, and broad money M2 , these variables are obtain from 1987 to 2008 period. For the purpose of finding long run relationship among the variables Johansen co-integration test is applied. The results show that after the reforms in 1991 the influence of foreign exchanges rate and foreign exchange reserve effects significantly to stock market. The result also shows that there was positive relationship between GFCF and M2 while WPI is negative relationship with stock price. The result also highlighted that interest rate is insignificant with stock prices in the long run. The results of variance decompositions revealed that out of seven macroeconomic variables inflation showed greater forecast error for KSE 100 Index.

Suggested Citation

  • Hussain, Adnan & Lal, Irfan Lal & Memon, Mubin, 2013. "Short run and Long run Dynamics of Macroeconomic Variables and Stock prices: Case Study of Karachi Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 37889, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37889
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37889/1/MPRA_paper_37889.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ayub, Mehar, 2000. "Stock market consequences of macro economic fundamentals," MPRA Paper 442, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
    2. Mohammed Nishat & Rozina Shaheen, 2004. "Macroeconomic Factors and Pakistani Equity Market," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 619-637.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Priyanka Aggarwal & Najia Saqib, 2017. "Impact of Macro Economic Variables of India and USA on Indian Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 10-14.
    2. Shahid Raza & M. Ali Kemal, 2017. "Daily Stock Market Movements: From the Lens of News and Events," Working Papers id:12188, eSocialSciences.
    3. Md. Rayhanul Islam & Huang Xiaoling, 2022. "Impact of Everything But Arms (EBA) on the Dhaka Stock Exchange," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 7(1), pages 34-52.
    4. Ditimi Amassoma & O. Adeleke, 2018. "Testing for the Causality between Interest Rate and Stock Market Performance in Nigeria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 109-124.
    5. GIRI A. K. & JOSHI Pooja, 2017. "The Impact Of Macroeconomic Indicators On Indian Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(1), pages 61-78, April.
    6. Kausar, Rabia & Qayyum, Abdul, 2018. "How Cash Flow News and Discount Rate News Impact the Unexpected Stock Returns of Energy Firms of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 91165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Asmat Ullah & Syed Waqar Hussain & Zahoor Khan & Muhammad Rafiq, 2011. "Shocks in Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Stability: Case Study of KSE-100 Index," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 3(2), pages 154-163, October.
    8. Isma Zaighum, 2014. "Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Non-financial firms Stock Returns: Evidence from Sectorial Study of KSE-100 Index," Journal of Management Sciences, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(1), pages 35-48, March.
    9. Pooja Joshi & A K Giri, 2015. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and Indian Stock Price: An Application of ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(10), pages 1119-1133, October.
    10. Altaf Hussain & Musrat Rafique & Ambar Khalil & Maryam Nawaz, 2013. "Macroeconomic Determinants Of Stock Price Variations: An Economic Analysis Of Kse-100 Index," Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 1(1), pages 28-46, June.
    11. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Ijaz Ur Rehman, 2016. "Stocks as Hedge against Inflation in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(6), pages 1280-1295, December.
    12. Rafaqat Ali & Rana Ejaz Ali Khan, 2018. "Socioeconomic Stability and Variability in Stock Market Prices: A Case Study of Karachi Stock Exchange," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(4), pages 428-440, December.
    13. Tolga Aydin & Hakan Oner, 2020. "Comparative Analysis for the Relationship between Stock Performance and Macroeconomic Indicators: The Case of Turkey," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 6(3), pages 146-154, September.
    14. Sanya Ogunsakin & Isaac Tope Awe, 2020. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Performance in Nigeria," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(4), pages 139-158, December.
    15. Joseph Ato Forson & Jakkaphong Janrattanagul, 2014. "Selected Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Movements: Empirical evidence from Thailand," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(2), June.
    16. Sirine Ben Yaâla & Jamel Henchiri, 2016. "Impact of Macroeconomic and Demographic Variables on the Stock Market: Evidence from Tunisian Crisis," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(8), pages 194-194, August.
    17. Cyrus Mutuku & Kirwa Lelei Ng¡¯eny, 2015. "Macroeconomic Variables and the Kenyan Equity Market: A Time Series Analysis," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10, June.
    18. Arshad Hasan & M. Tariq Javed, 2009. "An Empirical Investigation of the Causal Relationship among Monetary Variables and Equity Market Returns," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 115-137, Jan-Jun.
    19. Sumit Kumar Maji & Arindam Laha & Debasish Sur, 2020. "Dynamic Nexuses between Macroeconomic Variables and Sectoral Stock Indices: Reflection from Indian Manufacturing Industry," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 45(3), pages 239-269, August.
    20. Syed Imran Sajjad & Saleem Ullah Jan & Madiha Saddat & Ijaz ur Rehman, 2012. "Exploring the Nexus; Stock Market, T. Bills, Inflation, Interest Rate and Exchange Rate," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 4(7), pages 384-389.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock prices; Macroeconomics variables;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37889. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.